Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:24:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf510…678b politics 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate29%10W / 24L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% +$2
other 32% −$1
politics 24% −$1
economics 3% +$1
crypto 3% $0
finance 2% $0
sports 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 10 +6.2% -3.9% 30% 20% -9.2%
≤90d 10 +6.2% -3.9% 30% 20% -9.2%
all 34 +1.7% -8.0% 29% 6% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 6% -9.3%
10% -16.8% 3% -18.0%
15% -24.8% 3% -25.9%
20% -32.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses10 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage268d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $99 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $31 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 24 $13 +$2 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 22 $30 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $3 +$1 +50%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $29 −$1 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $29 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 19 $29 $0 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Dec 27 $16 $0 +2%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic aft Oct 07 $16 $0 +1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 05 $22 $0 +1%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 04 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 02 $23 +$1 +3%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $6 $0 +3%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 01 $24 $0 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 26 $26 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 26 $3 $0 -14%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 26 $26 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 26 $3 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Sep 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 24 $27 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 24 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Sep 24 $29 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 23 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $34 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $34 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $21 9h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $12 9h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $33 9h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $2 15h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $29 15h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $31 18h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $34 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $34 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $30 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $32 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 47¢ $7 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 47¢ $9 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 40¢ $13 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $23 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $10 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $33 26d
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $6 27d
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $24 27d
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 4¢ $4 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 3¢ $1 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 3¢ $0 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 3¢ $1 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 73¢ $1 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 73¢ $27 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $29 29d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $4 29d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $25 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 125 history records