Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:57:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F5
0xf512…79aa
weather · 125 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$54 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$53 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$104
Realized+$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses34 / 85
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)119 / 125
History coverage25d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day34.2
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 6 History 119 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$103
14 days−$143
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $98 $97 −$0 (-0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 16¢ 26¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+62%)
Will Mitch Marner win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? No 55¢ 74¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+34%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 83¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-90%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 9? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 5? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 5? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 4? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 5? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 5? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 4? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 10? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 2026? No 29¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 9? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 31? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 5? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 10? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 31? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 31? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 31? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 9? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $4 $0 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +102%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $27 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $13 +$37 +293%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 9? Jun 08 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 10? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 10? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 9? Jun 08 $6 −$6 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? Jun 08 $46 −$45 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 9? Jun 08 $37 −$36 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +10%
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? Jun 08 $2 $0 -6%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Jun 08 $8 −$2 -30%
Will MagicBlock launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 08 $9 −$1 -16%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 08 $4 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 $0 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $27 −$3 -11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 08 $31 −$2 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $12 −$1 -8%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 08 $38 −$4 -10%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $52 −$2 -4%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $9 −$3 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 7? Jun 08 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 7? Jun 08 $29 −$9 -30%
Will JT Poston win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Workd Jun 08 $6 +$7 +110%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $16 −$1 -4%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $21 −$5 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $30 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 7? Jun 07 $27 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $7 −$1 -9%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $24 +$7 +30%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $1 $0 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 +$40 +2090%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 5? Jun 05 $33 +$35 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 5? Jun 05 $6 −$2 -28%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 4? Jun 04 $32 +$68 +214%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 5? Jun 04 $14 −$14 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 5? Jun 04 $24 −$24 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 5? Jun 04 $22 −$21 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 5? Jun 04 $6 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 4? Jun 03 $21 −$21 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 4? Jun 03 $39 −$39 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $15 +$7 +46%
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Jun 03 $6 $0 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 03 $46 −$6 -14%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $45 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $6 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 58% +$95
world 17% −$22
other 10% −$2
crypto 7% −$6
sports 6% −$4
politics 1% −$7
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $4 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $101 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 9? BUY Yes 41¢ $21 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 10? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 10? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 9? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? BUY Yes 46¢ $14 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 9? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 9? BUY Yes 36¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 9? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? BUY Yes 45¢ $11 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 9? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 9? BUY Yes 36¢ $33 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? BUY Yes 45¢ $11 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)+2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -8.3% -17.0% 31% 17% -26.8%
≤30d 119 +13.4% +2.6% 29% 18% -24.3%
≤90d 119 +13.4% +2.6% 29% 18% -24.3%
all 119 +13.4% +2.6% 29% 18% -24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover34.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.6% 18% -24.3%
10% ← realistic here -7.2% 17% -31.5%
15% -16.2% 14% -38.1%
20% -24.4% 14% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.01 · official $104.01 (match) · 937 history records