Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:41:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf514…7aea other 70 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$22 (-12%) realized −$20 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%23W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$26
14 days−$26
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$65
sports 25% +$33
politics 3% +$2
world 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +2.6% -7.1% 35% 34% -22.6%
≤30d 65 +2.6% -7.1% 35% 34% -22.6%
≤90d 65 +2.6% -7.1% 35% 34% -22.6%
all 65 +2.6% -7.1% 35% 34% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 34% -22.6%
10% -16.0% 34% -30.0%
15% -24.1% 31% -36.7%
20% -31.6% 31% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$20
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses23 / 42
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)65 / 70
History coverage7d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 48¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+70%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 54¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals Yes 34¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-78%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +320%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $2 +$3 +139%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +246%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Gavi Paez: 1+ assists Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ goals Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$8 +249%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +421%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 +$2 +79%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +67%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -93%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -86%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +56%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$8 +276%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $3 +$3 +109%
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -92%
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +22%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $20 −$15 -74%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 2h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $5 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 3h
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 3h
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 5h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $2 5h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 5h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 5h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $2 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $1 11h
Gavi Paez: 1+ assists BUY Yes 25¢ $1 11h
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $1 11h
Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists BUY Yes 26¢ $1 11h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 61¢ $1 11h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 11h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 11h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $2 11h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 12h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $1 12h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 12h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 12h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 12h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.46 · official $3.46 (match) · 110 history records