Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:44:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf518…6932 other 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 511d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$118 (+10%) realized +$117 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate28%13W / 34L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$24
14 days+$24
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% +$261
other 20% −$111
world 14% +$32
tech 8% −$11
weather 4% −$50
sports 1% +$7
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-49.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +58.8% +43.7% 75% 75% +34.1%
≤30d 4 +58.8% +43.7% 75% 75% +34.1%
≤90d 4 +58.8% +43.7% 75% 75% +34.1%
all 47 -43.8% -49.2% 28% 21% +0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.2% 21% +0.6%
10% -54.0% 15% -9.0%
15% -58.5% 13% -17.8%
20% -62.5% 13% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +48% too few recent
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late -43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$12 · ×3.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

511d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$117
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses13 / 34
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)47 / 52
History coverage511d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 83¢ 94¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+13%)
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the July Meeting? Yes 66¢ 68¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will USD/KRW hit 1600 (High) in 2026? Yes 55¢ 46¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 74¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 70¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$8 +162%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +158%
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the Febru Jun 12 $29 +$4 +14%
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the Janua Jan 05 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the February Meeti Dec 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Dec 01 $27 −$1 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Nov 11 $40 +$3 +7%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 02 $20 +$3 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $118,000 on October 9? Oct 09 $5 $0 -1%
Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2025? Sep 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Gold close under $2,500 at the end of 2025? Sep 30 $2 −$1 -65%
US government shutdown by October 1? Sep 29 $2 −$2 -100%
US government shutdown in 2025? Sep 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Sep 29 $13 −$8 -62%
"Demon Slayer" grosses higher than "The Conjuring" opening weekend? Sep 15 $1 +$1 +75%
Kweon Seong-dong in jail by October 31? Sep 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Gold close below $3200 at the end of 2025? Sep 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gold close at $2,500-2,600 at the end of 2025? Sep 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Gold close at $2,600-2,700 at the end of 2025? Sep 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Gold close at $2,700-2,800 at the end of 2025? Sep 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Gold close at $2,800-2,900 at the end of 2025? Sep 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Gold close at $2,900-3,000 at the end of 2025? Sep 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Gold close at $3,000-3,100 at the end of 2025? Sep 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Gold close at $3,100-3,200 at the end of 2025? Sep 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Jul 30 $50 +$27 +54%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by July 31? Jul 29 $25 −$23 -93%
Will Chainlink hit $30 before August? Jul 29 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - July 28, 10PM ET Jul 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Liberty vs Wings Jul 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by July 31? Jul 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Thailand capture Preah Vihear temple by July 31? Jul 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Another Israel strike on Yemen in July? Jul 22 $20 +$5 +27%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05–1.10ºC in July 2025? Jul 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.10ºC in July 2025? Jul 08 $25 −$25 -100%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 26 $10 −$10 -100%
270+ pump.fun graduated tokens on May 23? May 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Will 'Bling-Bang-Bang-Born' win Crunchyroll's Best Anime Song Award fo May 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? May 26 $260 −$10 -4%
Will 'Fern' win Crunchyroll's Best Supporting Character Award for 2025 May 26 $100 +$77 +77%
Will the candidate from the People Power Party win the South Korean Pr Apr 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? Apr 01 $100 +$376 +376%
Will Trump appeal his hush money conviction? Feb 03 $20 +$1 +6%
Will any of Trump’s children launch a coin by Friday? Feb 03 $50 +$5 +10%
Will TikTok be on the App Store by Friday? Jan 23 $10 −$9 -86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $13 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 2h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 3d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $5 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 3d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 4d
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the July Meeting? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 4d
Will USD/KRW hit 1600 (High) in 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 4d
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the Febru BUY Yes 87¢ $14 161d
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the Febru BUY Yes 87¢ $10 161d
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the Janua SELL Yes 99¢ $6 161d
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the Febru BUY Yes 88¢ $5 173d
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the February Meeti BUY Yes 79¢ $5 173d
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the Janua BUY Yes 89¢ $5 174d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL No 51¢ $26 196d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 52¢ $27 217d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 90¢ $22 217d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 83¢ $20 225d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 81¢ $20 243d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $118,000 on October 9? SELL Yes 98¢ $5 249d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $118,000 on October 9? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 249d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 80¢ $21 249d
Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2025? BUY No 10¢ $14 258d
Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2025? BUY No 10¢ $2 258d
Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2025? BUY No 10¢ $2 258d
Will Gold close under $2,500 at the end of 2025? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 258d
Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2025? BUY No 9¢ $2 258d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 78¢ $20 259d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $20 259d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.49 · official $51.49 (match) · 95 history records