Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:39:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf51e…a9b7 crypto 83 markets active 4d ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$85 (-9%) realized −$85 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate28%23W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day12.9pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days−$121
14 days−$99
30 days−$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$62
other 11% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -18.4% -26.2% 24% 24% -17.9%
≤30d 83 -16.8% -24.7% 28% 24% -14.6%
≤90d 83 -16.8% -24.7% 28% 24% -14.6%
all 83 -16.8% -24.7% 28% 24% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.7% 24% -14.6%
10% -31.9% 23% -22.8%
15% -38.5% 23% -30.2%
20% -44.5% 22% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$6 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses23 / 60
Open positions0
Markets (closed)83 / 83
History coverage21d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 83 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$16 +153%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$2 -34%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$7 -50%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$2 -52%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$3 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$2 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$7 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$2 +21%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$3 -73%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -46%
XRP Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $20 −$10 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $20 −$10 -47%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$6 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$4 -32%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$6 -57%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$8 -85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$4 -35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$4 -44%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$3 +285%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$5 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$8 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$4 -38%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$4 -38%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$4 -38%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$8 -78%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$9 -85%
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 12 $20 +$19 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 12 $20 +$19 +91%
Solana Up or Down on June 13? Jun 12 $20 +$19 +91%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$4 -35%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$4 -38%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$3 -31%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$4 -42%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$9 -86%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$9 -78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$9 -78%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -92%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$7 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$9 -78%
BNB Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $21 −$13 -64%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +285%
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $21 −$10 -50%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$15 +150%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$15 +150%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$15 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$15 +150%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $3 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $2 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $0 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $4 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $2 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $4 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $4 3d
XRP Up or Down on June 13? SELL Down 18¢ $10 4d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? SELL Down 19¢ $11 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $2 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 285 history records