Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:24:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F5
0xf524…8178
other · 600 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$414 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$46 · open −$184
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,639
Realized−$46
Unrealized−$184
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses105 / 136
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions500
Markets (closed)241 / 600
History coverage5d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day720.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%
Chart Positions 500 History 241 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$48
7 days−$46
14 days−$46
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kevin Kiermaier win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award? Yes 5¢ 22¢ $23 $99 +$76 (+331%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 8¢ 8¢ $33 $32 −$1 (-3%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $36 $32 −$4 (-12%)
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $36 $31 −$4 (-12%)
Ebola pandemic in 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $37 $30 −$7 (-19%)
Will Mark Lamb be the Republican nominee for AZ-05? No 10¢ 56¢ $5 $28 +$23 (+456%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $36 $27 −$8 (-23%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-4%)
Will the Republican Party win the FL-14 House seat? No 73¢ 50¢ $35 $24 −$11 (-32%)
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? No 10¢ 10¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+5%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+9%)
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+0%)
LA Mayoral Election: Recount of 1st Round? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $25 $17 −$8 (-32%)
JD Vance out as VP by December 31? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-6%)
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+3%)
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+5%)
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? No 9¢ 8¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $23 $14 −$9 (-39%)
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? No 6¢ 68¢ $1 $14 +$12 (+1025%)
Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by December 31? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-7%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+8%)
Will USD be less than 1.5M Iranian rials on June 30? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $19 $13 −$6 (-32%)
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-3%)
Will Michael Foust win the Tallahassee mayoral election? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? Jun 13 $7 −$3 -38%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 13 $4 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Viktor Orbán by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -38%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026? Jun 13 $6 −$4 -62%
Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31? Jun 13 $6 +$1 +10%
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 13 $19 −$3 -15%
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $4 −$3 -68%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $14 +$2 +12%
Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches? Jun 13 $4 $0 -6%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 13 $187 +$5 +2%
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5 $0 -5%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 13 $3 $0 -17%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $480 −$17 -4%
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $33 −$5 -14%
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on June 30? Jun 13 $5 +$9 +176%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 13 $1 $0 -22%
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 13 $55 −$6 -11%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 13 $5 −$2 -48%
Peru Presidential Election Invalidated? Jun 13 $8 +$2 +25%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? Jun 13 $14 $0 -0%
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Jun 13 $33 −$4 -11%
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by June 30? Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $875B by June 30? Jun 13 $3 +$4 +136%
Will Curvance launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $0 $0 +15%
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$2 -47%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in June? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -43%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 13 $57 −$5 -8%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 13 $15 −$1 -5%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $6 −$1 -11%
Will MagicBlock launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -33%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 40.0 in June? Jun 13 $9 −$2 -24%
Will JPMorgan Chase or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the Jun 13 $0 $0 +16%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 13 $31 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by June 30? Jun 13 $5 −$3 -48%
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 13 $2 $0 +6%
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 12 $3 $0 -2%
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $6 $0 +8%
NBA Finals: Wemby to Record 20+ Rebounds in a Game? Jun 12 $16 −$5 -32%
Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +46%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $25 −$1 -6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$2 -60%
Will Türkiye finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 12 $8 +$1 +10%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June? Jun 12 $2 $0 -15%
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? Jun 12 $9 −$1 -16%
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%? Jun 12 $1 $0 +31%
Will Xi Jinping purge Zhang Shengmin in 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +19%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $26 $0 +0%
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Jun 12 $4 −$3 -56%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $48 −$2 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 35% −$163
world 27% +$33
tech 22% −$48
politics 9% −$60
finance 4% +$9
sports 3% −$3
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% −$1
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 0m
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 1m
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4m
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 6m
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.00 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 9m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 9m
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $11 10m
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 12m
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 15m
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 8¢ $16 15m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Viktor Orbán by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 22m
Will Ali Larijani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 22m
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 28m
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 29m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 31m
SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 33m
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $25B? BUY No 4¢ $1 37m
Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 37m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 40m
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 42m
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 42m
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 43m
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $11 45m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 46m
Will David Jolly be the Democratic nominee for Florida Governor? BUY No 4¢ $0 52m
Will Tems perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 55m
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 59m
Will Ali Larijani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 241 +21.1% +9.5% 44% 33% -10.7%
≤30d 241 +21.1% +9.5% 44% 33% -10.7%
≤90d 241 +21.1% +9.5% 44% 33% -10.7%
all 241 +21.1% +9.5% 44% 33% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover720.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.5% 33% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -1.0% 25% -19.2%
15% -10.5% 18% -27.0%
20% -19.3% 16% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,639.33 · official $3,201.39 · 3500 history records