Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:23:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf528…6bd2 other 142 markets active 2h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$75 (-0%) realized −$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%15W / 126L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$25
14 days−$39
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$37
sports 24% −$20
politics 19% −$14
crypto 4% −$5
economics 4% $0
culture 3% −$3
world 3% −$3
finance 3% +$2
tech 2% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -1.5% -10.9% 4% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 62 -1.0% -10.4% 5% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 119 -0.6% -10.1% 8% 0% -10.0%
all 141 -0.6% -10.0% 11% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses15 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)141 / 142
History coverage110d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 98¢ 98¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Jun 21 $61 $0 +0%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 21 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $59 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $87 −$2 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 20 $45 −$1 -3%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $545 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 19 $41 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 24, 2026? Jun 19 $5 $0 -3%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champ Jun 18 $11 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $331 −$1 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 18 $125 −$2 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 18 $111 −$1 -1%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $46 −$1 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $162 −$2 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $58 −$1 -2%
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $59 −$2 -3%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $46 $0 -0%
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $58 −$2 -4%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $30 $0 -1%
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $53 −$3 -6%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $122 −$3 -3%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $121 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $526 −$4 -1%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $173 −$3 -2%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $96 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $388 −$2 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 13 $61 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 12 $42 $0 -1%
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 11 $5 $0 -1%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $157 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $194 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 10 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $60 $0 +1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $180 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $57 $0 -1%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 09 $62 $0 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 07 $56 −$1 -2%
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $106 −$1 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 06 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $151 −$1 -0%
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $60 $0 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $39 $0 -1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 04 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $28 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $186 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $103 $0 -0%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $43 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $58 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $62 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $61 9h
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $39 9h
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $39 17h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $58 18h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $59 25h
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $41 25h
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $42 34h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL No 91¢ $43 34h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 93¢ $45 40h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $62 41h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $62 45h
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 97¢ $41 45h
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $41 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 24, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $4 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $66 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $67 2d
Will the Montreal Canadiens be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champ SELL No 96¢ $11 2d
Will the Montreal Canadiens be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champ BUY No 97¢ $11 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $64 3d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $64 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $58 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $59 3d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $59 3d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 95¢ $59 3d
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $46 3d
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $24 3d
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $22 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.00 · official $58.00 (match) · 566 history records