Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:34:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F5
0xf528…7e5b
other · 1070 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
+$668 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$597 · open +$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,267
Realized+$597
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses817 / 269
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions252
Markets (closed)1086 / 1070
History coverage4d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day990.1
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 252 History 1086 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$420
7 days+$597
14 days+$597
30 days+$597
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Future have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? No 86¢ 79¢ $18 $16 −$1 (-8%)
Will MrBeast say "Lamborghini" during his next YouTube video? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting? Yes 82¢ 84¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Sudan civil war ceasefire by June 30, 2026? No 79¢ 81¢ $12 $13 +$0 (+2%)
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? Yes 86¢ 83¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-3%)
Anthony Albanese out as Prime Minister of Australia by December 31, 2026? No 82¢ 87¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+6%)
Will Grace Meng be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? Yes 86¢ 90¢ $11 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 5–10%? Yes 83¢ 93¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? No 86¢ 90¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will 1250 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026? Yes 80¢ 83¢ $10 $11 +$0 (+4%)
Will Turkey Move on a New Constitution in 2026? No 80¢ 83¢ $10 $11 +$0 (+4%)
Will Yassine Bounou record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 90¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will Stefany Shaheen be the Democratic nominee for NH-01? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $10 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 84¢ 88¢ $10 $11 +$0 (+4%)
Will Lionel Messi score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 86¢ $10 $10 +$1 (+5%)
Will New Zealand be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 80¢ 80¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sabrina Carpenter be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026? No 84¢ 86¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? No 82¢ 85¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? No 86¢ 94¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+9%)
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2026 meeting? No 84¢ 84¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $70 by December 31, 2026? Yes 86¢ 84¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bad Bunny be named People's Sexiest Man Alive in 2026? No 80¢ 74¢ $10 $10 −$1 (-7%)
Will Facundo Medina be in Argentina's Starting 11? Yes 87¢ 81¢ $10 $10 −$1 (-7%)
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.5B and $1.75B at market close on IPO day? No 85¢ 78¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will the median home value in the Los Angeles Metro area be less than $1,172,000 on June 30? No 81¢ 78¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will OPEC crude oil production be above 20 million barrels per day in Jun 12 $4 +$1 +17%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 12 $4 +$4 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 5? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 27? Jun 12 $4 +$2 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on May 29? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +27%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Jun 12 $4 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 8? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +28%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun Jun 12 $4 +$1 +14%
Will Virat Kohli win the 2026 IPL Orange Cap? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 5? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +27%
Will "The Breadwinner" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomato Jun 12 $4 +$2 +54%
Will MrBeast say "Karl" during his next YouTube video? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June Jun 12 $4 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ma Jun 12 $4 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on May 27? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on June 8? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +34%
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +22%
Will lululemon athletica (LULU) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +31%
Will Rasmus Dahlin win the 2025–2026 NHL James Norris Memorial Trophy? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 7? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +18%
Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 30? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +30%
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 26? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +30%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 9? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +37%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 8? Jun 12 $4 +$2 +47%
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by May 31? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C or higher on May 29? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +30%
Will Vance say "President" or "Trump" 10+ times during Air Force Acade Jun 12 $3 +$1 +42%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ma Jun 12 $4 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on May 30? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on May 27? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +24%
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in May? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on May 19? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 25? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on May 28? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 6? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +32%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 6? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +22%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 2? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +32%
Will Trump say "Darth Vader" in May? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 7? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 23? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +29%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on May 30? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +32%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? Jun 12 $3 +$9 +311%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on May 29? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 4? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +25%
Will Scott Dixon win the 2026 Indianapolis 500? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 30% +$87
weather 25% +$61
politics 10% +$116
tech 9% +$1
finance 8% +$19
world 6% +$47
crypto 6% +$31
sports 5% +$8
culture 2% +$2
economics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu SELL No 87¢ $2 0m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? SELL No 86¢ $9 3m
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? SELL No 75¢ $5 4m
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $3 5m
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? BUY No 67¢ $5 5m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 12? SELL No 95¢ $1 7m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 76¢ $5 8m
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA BUY No 78¢ $0 8m
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2 SELL Yes 81¢ $6 9m
Will there be 15+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $5 11m
Will Marcus Rashford be in England's Starting 11? SELL No 63¢ $4 11m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 12? SELL No 95¢ $10 11m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 12? SELL No 95¢ $1 12m
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13m? SELL No 77¢ $8 12m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL No 88¢ $5 16m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 12? BUY No 86¢ $10 16m
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? BUY No 88¢ $1 19m
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam? SELL Yes 84¢ $6 19m
Will Lionel Messi score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $10 19m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL No 77¢ $5 23m
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the USA vs Paraguay FI BUY Yes 86¢ $6 23m
Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? BUY No 69¢ $5 23m
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio BUY Yes 69¢ $3 24m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 80¢ $5 26m
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P BUY No 66¢ $5 27m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL No 49¢ $2 27m
Will Jaunā Vienotība (JV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parli SELL No 74¢ $6 28m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL No 80¢ $9 28m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL No 80¢ $1 31m
Will Canada finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY No 64¢ $5 32m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1086 +15.7% +4.7% 75% 43% -3.3%
≤30d 1086 +15.7% +4.7% 75% 43% -3.3%
≤90d 1086 +15.7% +4.7% 75% 43% -3.3%
all 1086 +15.7% +4.7% 75% 43% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover990.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.7% 43% -3.3%
10% ← realistic here -5.3% 25% -12.5%
15% -14.5% 14% -21.0%
20% -22.9% 7% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,266.62 · official $3,982.85 · 3500 history records