Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:59:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F5 0xf529…755f sports 488 markets active 1h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$139 (+0%) realized −$48 · open +$187
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%187W / 298L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$814est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$737now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$163
7 days+$869
14 days+$105
30 days−$1,876
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$391
other 1% −$162
crypto 0% −$17
culture 0% −$53
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -52.4% -56.9% 25% 23% -1.3%
≤30d 269 -26.6% -33.6% 35% 33% -13.0%
≤90d 469 -4.8% -13.9% 37% 36% -10.4%
all 485 -3.5% -12.7% 39% 37% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 37% -10.4%
10% -21.0% 32% -19.0%
15% -28.7% 26% -26.8%
20% -35.7% 21% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$104 vs −$65 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$737
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$187
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses187 / 298
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$814
Open positions3
Markets (closed)485 / 488
History coverage162d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 485 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 53¢ 66¢ $530 $665 +$135 (+25%)
Will Falcons reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 3¢ 12¢ $17 $71 +$54 (+317%)
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $868 +$251 +29%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $1,598 +$496 +31%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $55 −$54 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $62 −$62 -100%
Valorant: Leviatán Academy vs ShindeN - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $55 −$55 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Amer Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: M80 vs Cloud9 (BO1) - North America League Stage 1 Jun 19 $27 −$27 -100%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: DarkZero Esports vs Wildcard Gaming (BO1) - North A Jun 19 $114 −$114 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $264 −$238 -90%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Rebels Gaming vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA Le Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA Leag Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "Office Romance" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $53 −$53 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $73 −$73 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $374 +$625 +167%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $407 +$592 +145%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $66 +$33 +50%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $110 −$110 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $66 −$66 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $28 +$45 +158%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: LOS vs LOUD (BO1) - South America League Stage 1 Gr Jun 15 $38 −$38 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will G2 Esports win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Team Heretics win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 14 $54 −$54 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $231 −$231 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $478 −$478 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $411 +$887 +216%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $72 +$33 +46%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $6 +$9 +139%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $48 +$12 +24%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $669 +$343 +51%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO1) - Asia Masters Group B Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $6 +$11 +198%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $64 −$64 -100%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $56 −$56 -100%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B Jun 13 $95 −$95 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $1,120 44m
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 82¢ $824 52m
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 36¢ $44 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $2,094 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 70¢ $68 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 53¢ $537 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 90¢ $903 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 62¢ $627 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 25¢ $55 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 62¢ $13 4h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 62¢ $11 4h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 62¢ $19 4h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 62¢ $14 4h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 62¢ $6 4h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $87 5h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 5¢ $1 5h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 14¢ $30 5h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 15¢ $20 5h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 25¢ $29 5h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 5¢ $1 5h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 26¢ $11 5h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 34¢ $8 5h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 24¢ $76 6h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 16¢ $57 6h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 31¢ $9 6h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 29¢ $22 6h
Rainbow Six Siege: DarkZero Esports vs Wildcard Gaming (BO1) - North A BUY DarkZero Esports 10¢ $62 18h
Rainbow Six Siege: DarkZero Esports vs Wildcard Gaming (BO1) - North A BUY DarkZero Esports 10¢ $24 18h
Rainbow Six Siege: DarkZero Esports vs Wildcard Gaming (BO1) - North A BUY DarkZero Esports 10¢ $28 18h
Valorant: Leviatán Academy vs ShindeN - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Academy 6¢ $1 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $737.42 · official $812.42 · 1580 history records