Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:50:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F5 0xf533…5cad crypto 694 markets active 4d ago coverage 602d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$70 (-2%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate62%429W / 265L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$26
14 days−$36
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$122
sports 14% +$65
world 2% −$21
politics 2% −$26
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 184 -2.7% -12.0% 64% 53% -12.2%
≤30d 345 -1.1% -10.5% 65% 56% -12.0%
≤90d 506 -5.5% -14.5% 63% 54% -12.2%
all 694 -3.6% -12.8% 62% 53% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 53% -12.4%
10% -21.1% 43% -20.8%
15% -28.8% 32% -28.4%
20% -35.7% 22% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

602d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses429 / 265
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)694 / 694
History coverage602d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 694 Trades
no open positions (200 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $12 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 11 $42 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$3 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 23¢ $1 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1528 history records