Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:33:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F5 0xf533…dacc crypto 42 markets active 5h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%41W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% $0
other 45% $0
weather 6% $0
politics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 24 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 41 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 41 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses41 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage48d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 14? Jun 14 $16 $0 +0%
Will NYC Mayor post 200+ posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 6? Jun 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $24 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 24 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? May 21 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 17? May 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 14? May 14 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 13? May 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ye said be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on May 12? May 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C or below on May 9? May 09 $24 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 7? May 07 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 6? May 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 4? May 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C or higher on May 1? May 01 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 29? Apr 29 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $17 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $16 33h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $16 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $21 5d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 6d
Will NYC Mayor post 200+ posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 7d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $16 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $18 10d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $23 12d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $18 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $20 15d
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 17d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 18d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $18 23d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 24d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $21 26d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 28d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 17? BUY No 100¢ $23 30d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 30d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 31d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $23 33d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $23 34d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.02 · official $17.02 (match) · 83 history records