Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:57:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
F5 0xf536…e40c sports 341 markets active 2h ago coverage 416d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$5,355 (+12%) realized +$5,546 · open −$191
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%123W / 211L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$128est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$1,209now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,269
7 days+$3,425
14 days+$3,525
30 days+$5,324
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$5,065
other 42% −$413
world 1% +$1,737
politics 1% −$249
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +126.8% +105.2% 40% 40% +71.4%
≤30d 28 +124.6% +103.2% 46% 46% +82.3%
≤90d 101 -2.3% -11.6% 23% 23% -14.1%
all 334 +18.6% +7.3% 37% 37% +4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.3% 37% +4.0%
10% -3.0% 36% -5.9%
15% -12.3% 35% -15.0%
20% -20.9% 34% -23.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$274 vs −$130 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

416d coverage
Net worth$1,209
Realized+$5,546
Unrealized−$191
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses123 / 211
Est. fees paid−$128
Open positions6
Markets (closed)334 / 341
History coverage416d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 334 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $300 $344 +$44 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $300 $242 −$58 (-19%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $200 $192 −$8 (-4%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $200 $181 −$19 (-9%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $200 $179 −$21 (-11%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $200 $70 −$130 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 135 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $205 +$1,333 +650%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $205 −$200 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $205 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $205 −$200 -98%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $204 +$323 +158%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $203 +$214 +105%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $205 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $205 −$200 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $204 +$485 +238%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $103 +$1,937 +1883%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $203 +$273 +134%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $204 +$596 +291%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $204 +$565 +276%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $204 −$200 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $204 −$200 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $204 −$200 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $204 −$200 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $205 +$500 +244%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $102 +$168 +165%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $102 +$255 +250%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $205 +$665 +325%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $300 +$811 +270%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $102 +$155 +152%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? May 11 $102 +$298 +291%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $102 +$176 +172%
Will Burnley FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? May 10 $102 +$332 +325%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? May 10 $102 +$268 +262%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 10 $102 −$100 -98%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $102 +$155 +152%
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? May 09 $102 +$255 +250%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $102 −$100 -98%
76ers vs. Knicks May 06 $102 −$100 -98%
Harry Kane: Anytime Goalscorer May 06 $102 −$100 -98%
Desire Doue: Anytime Goalscorer May 06 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? May 03 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 03 $204 −$200 -98%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 03 $102 −$100 -98%
Magic vs. Pistons May 03 $102 −$100 -98%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $102 +$161 +158%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 29 $205 −$200 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 7¢ $206 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $205 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $205 12h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 13¢ $205 12h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 13¢ $205 12h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 12h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY 15¢ $154 12h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $205 35h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 15¢ $205 35h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $203 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $205 2d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 38¢ $204 2d
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 2d
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $204 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $203 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $204 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $204 4d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 BUY Over 23¢ $205 4d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 25¢ $204 4d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $204 5d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $204 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 34¢ $102 6d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $205 6d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 34¢ $102 6d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $204 7d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $204 7d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 62¢ $705 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $102 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,208.53 · official $1,372.82 · 566 history records