Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:15:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf53d…e2e6 crypto 86 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$124 (-10%) realized −$118 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate49%39W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day69.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$133
crypto 40% −$9
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-34.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -27.5% -34.4% 49% 38% -21.2%
≤30d 80 -27.5% -34.4% 49% 38% -21.2%
≤90d 80 -27.5% -34.4% 49% 38% -21.2%
all 80 -27.5% -34.4% 49% 38% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.4% 38% -21.2%
10% ← realistic here -40.6% 26% -28.8%
15% -46.4% 14% -35.7%
20% -51.6% 9% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized−$118
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses39 / 41
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)80 / 86
History coverage2d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day69.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 52¢ $88 $73 −$15 (-17%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Yes 62¢ 100¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+61%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 13¢ 26¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+104%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $98 +$30 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $90 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +15%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $35 −$11 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$3 +71%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$20 +67%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $15 +$54 +356%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$3 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$3 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$19 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$7 +43%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$86 -85%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$8 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$7 +26%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$7 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +29%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 11m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 44m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 63¢ $32 45m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $58 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $64 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 8h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 8h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 8h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $98 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 19h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $92 19h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 98¢ $60 19h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 98¢ $30 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 20h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $6 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.90 · official $111.90 (match) · 193 history records