Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:17:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf53d…4b7c other 130 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$592 (-15%) realized −$592 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate37%48W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$690
7 days−$559
14 days−$560
30 days−$572
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$571
other 26% −$102
weather 3% +$8
politics 2% −$3
crypto 1% −$11
world 0% −$6
tech 0% −$1
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -8.3% -17.0% 58% 28% -27.3%
≤30d 60 -12.8% -21.1% 50% 23% -27.4%
≤90d 130 -15.9% -23.9% 37% 17% -24.9%
all 130 -15.9% -23.9% 37% 17% -24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.9% 17% -24.9%
10% -31.2% 13% -32.1%
15% -37.9% 8% -38.7%
20% -44.0% 6% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$17 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$592
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses48 / 82
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions0
Markets (closed)130 / 130
History coverage85d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 130 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$17 -17%
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary Jun 21 $51 −$3 -5%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$45 +44%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $232 −$232 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 −$96 -94%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 −$96 -95%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $214 +$212 +99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $205 −$162 -79%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $447 −$132 -30%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $408 −$217 -53%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $102 +$182 +177%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $102 +$105 +103%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $102 +$65 +64%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +6%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 $0 -1%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 $0 -2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +12%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 $0 -1%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 $0 -2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$4 +20%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$5 +22%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +9%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +11%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 $0 +5%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$13 +122%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$3 +32%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$3 +25%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $20 +$1 +6%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 +$6 +61%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 $0 +5%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 59¢ $84 31m
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary SELL No 76¢ $48 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 49¢ $102 6h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 52¢ $102 8h
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary BUY No 78¢ $10 8h
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary BUY No 78¢ $10 8h
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary BUY No 78¢ $10 8h
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary BUY No 78¢ $10 8h
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary BUY No 78¢ $10 8h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 6¢ $10 11h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $146 17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 23h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 4¢ $5 25h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 71¢ $101 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 39¢ $27 28h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 39¢ $205 28h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $426 28h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $10 30h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 49¢ $204 30h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Aurora Gaming 9¢ $42 31h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 41¢ $205 33h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 47¢ $37 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 47¢ $204 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 53¢ $315 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 33¢ $205 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 52¢ $204 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $284 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 427 history records