Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:31:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf540…9794 other 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$65 (-0%) realized −$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%9W / 119L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$12
14 days−$23
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$18
politics 26% −$62
sports 19% −$28
culture 8% −$5
crypto 7% −$4
economics 3% −$3
world 3% −$3
finance 2% −$3
tech 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.7% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 62 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 110 -0.7% -10.2% 4% 0% -10.2%
all 128 -0.7% -10.2% 7% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -10.2%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.8%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.6%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses9 / 119
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 129
History coverage100d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 17 $49 $0 -0%
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $45 $0 -1%
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $55 −$1 -1%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $122 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $189 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $45 −$1 -2%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $41 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $261 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $83 −$2 -2%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 14 $285 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $183 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $105 $0 -0%
Will Senegal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $20 $0 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $378 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $111 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $97 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $97 $0 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 11 $95 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $61 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 11 $55 −$2 -3%
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $39 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 10 $64 $0 -0%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $65 −$1 -2%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $20 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $45 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $191 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 06 $457 −$2 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $57 −$1 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $112 −$2 -2%
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 05 $24 $0 -1%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 05 $58 −$1 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 05 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $213 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $280 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $48 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 03 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $64 $0 -0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 03 $2 $0 -1%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $192 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $59 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $98 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $50 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $51 $0 -1%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $47 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 30 $148 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $50 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 27 $102 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $39 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $49 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $49 6h
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 95¢ $44 7h
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 96¢ $45 11h
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 96¢ $55 12h
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 97¢ $55 18h
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $59 18h
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $59 26h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $46 27h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $46 31h
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $44 32h
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $45 37h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $41 37h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $41 43h
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $16 44h
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $16 2d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $42 2d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $44 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $37 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $38 2d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $50 2d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $50 3d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 91¢ $59 3d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $59 3d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $47 3d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $26 3d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $21 3d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $50 3d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $24 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.19 · official $39.19 (match) · 468 history records