Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:59:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf540…b331 crypto 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$24 (+1%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day40.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$449
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-35.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -28.5% -35.3% 43% 36% -33.2%
≤30d 14 -28.5% -35.3% 43% 36% -33.2%
≤90d 14 -28.5% -35.3% 43% 36% -33.2%
all 14 -28.5% -35.3% 43% 36% -33.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.3% 36% -33.2%
10% ← realistic here -41.5% 36% -39.6%
15% -47.1% 36% -45.5%
20% -52.3% 21% -50.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$106 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day40.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 24 $21 +$17 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $322 +$155 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 24 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 24 $104 +$88 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 24 $200 −$92 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 24 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 24 $158 −$150 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 24 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 24 $85 −$80 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 24 $105 +$86 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 24 $239 −$230 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 24 $104 +$50 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 24 $103 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 24 $43 −$42 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up $11 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $108 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $94 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records