Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:38:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F5 0xf543…80bd other 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 462d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate50%16W / 16L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% −$1
other 26% +$2
politics 8% +$1
crypto 4% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.4% -8.2% 29% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 +0.2% -9.4% 29% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 14 +0.2% -9.4% 29% 0% -9.6%
all 32 +1.4% -8.3% 50% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 3% -9.3%
10% -17.0% 3% -17.9%
15% -25.1% 0% -25.9%
20% -32.4% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

462d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses16 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage462d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 33¢ 33¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $1 $0 +9%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $21 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $25 +$1 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $42 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $46 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $45 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $2 $0 -6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $87 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $38 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $52 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $55 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $47 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $14 $0 +2%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Solana above $120 on April 18? Apr 19 $14 $0 +1%
Will Karoline Leavitt be out as White House Press Secretary in Trump's Apr 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 15 $16 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Apr 14 $17 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? Apr 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Apr 04 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Mar 31 $2 $0 +25%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $340b and $350b on March 31? Mar 31 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Mar 31 $13 $0 +0%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 28 $2 $0 -3%
Will Michigan State win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 25 $14 $0 -0%
Canada election called by Sunday? Mar 24 $12 +$1 +6%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $13 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $30 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 13h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $25 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $14 28h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $8 28h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 28h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $14 34h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 36h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 36h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $42 41h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $13 43h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $28 43h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $35 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $9 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $45 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $46 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $7 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $39 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $10 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $31 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $42 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.70 · official $29.70 (match) · 117 history records