Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:17:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf545…4036 sports 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$441 (-13%) realized −$441 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%25W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$179
7 days−$177
14 days−$177
30 days−$177
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$98
other 20% −$209
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -6.4% -15.3% 40% 40% -15.6%
≤30d 57 -6.4% -15.3% 40% 40% -15.6%
≤90d 65 -8.6% -17.3% 38% 38% -17.8%
all 65 -8.6% -17.3% 38% 38% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 38% -17.8%
10% -25.2% 38% -25.7%
15% -32.4% 38% -32.9%
20% -39.0% 34% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$44 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$441
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses25 / 40
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions0
Markets (closed)65 / 65
History coverage37d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 65 Trades
no open positions (34 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set 1 Winner: Medjedovic vs Humbert Jun 18 $41 +$39 +97%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $31 +$41 +134%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $61 +$126 +206%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Jun 18 $54 +$45 +84%
Set 1 Winner: Eala vs Rybakina Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Mayar Sherif Jun 18 $53 +$23 +44%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Set 2 Winner: Zverev vs Hanfmann Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $41 −$40 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Paul vs Zandschulp Jun 18 $26 +$55 +216%
Set 2 Winner: Shelton vs Quinn Jun 18 $25 +$39 +155%
Set Handicap: Fokina (-1.5) vs Moutet (+1.5) Jun 18 $61 +$98 +160%
Set Handicap: Noskova (-1.5) vs Parry (+1.5) Jun 18 $164 +$75 +46%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $176 −$12 -7%
ITF Zhengzhou: Junhan Zhang vs Ekaterina Yashina Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF Zhengzhou: Chenting Zhu vs Jia-Jing Lu Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $152 −$150 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $63 −$49 -78%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino Jun 17 $56 +$47 +84%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith Jun 17 $40 +$18 +46%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $54 −$53 -98%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $51 +$88 +173%
Set 2 Winner: Tien vs Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Tien vs Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $45 +$55 +123%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $110 −$108 -99%
Set 2 Winner: Tiafoe vs Shimabukuro Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Tiafoe vs Shimabukuro Jun 17 $51 +$30 +60%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $65 −$64 -98%
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Bergs (+1.5) Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$26 +129%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $41 +$52 +128%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 −$15 -49%
Set 2 Winner: Majchrzak vs Lehecka Jun 16 $28 +$19 +67%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $152 +$155 +102%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $69 −$68 -99%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $30 −$30 -98%
Set 2 Winner: Kovacevic vs Cerundolo Jun 16 $20 +$28 +137%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $65 −$41 -64%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $19 +$22 +116%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Rublev vs Hurkacz Jun 16 $20 +$19 +95%
Set 2 Winner: Buse vs Giron Jun 16 $19 −$19 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Griekspoor vs Shimabukuro Jun 16 $20 +$19 +94%
Set 2 Winner: Khachanov vs Quinn Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) Jun 16 $29 −$29 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set 1 Winner: Medjedovic vs Humbert BUY Medjedovic 50¢ $41 1h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka SELL Rinky Hijikata 100¢ $71 1h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Rinky Hijikata 42¢ $31 2h
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci SELL Raphael Collignon 100¢ $187 2h
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Raphael Collignon 32¢ $61 3h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Elena Rybakina 54¢ $51 3h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston SELL Ann Li 92¢ $99 3h
Set 1 Winner: Eala vs Rybakina BUY Rybakina 41¢ $31 3h
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Mayar Sherif SELL Mayar Sherif 74¢ $72 4h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston BUY Ann Li 49¢ $54 4h
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Mayar Sherif SELL Mayar Sherif 69¢ $4 4h
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Mayar Sherif BUY Mayar Sherif 50¢ $53 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 39¢ $41 5h
Set 2 Winner: Zverev vs Hanfmann BUY Hanfmann 35¢ $18 5h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 51¢ $41 6h
Set 1 Winner: Paul vs Zandschulp SELL Paul 100¢ $81 6h
Set 1 Winner: Paul vs Zandschulp BUY Paul 31¢ $26 7h
Set 2 Winner: Shelton vs Quinn SELL Quinn 99¢ $65 7h
Set 2 Winner: Shelton vs Quinn BUY Quinn 38¢ $25 7h
Set Handicap: Fokina (-1.5) vs Moutet (+1.5) SELL Fokina 99¢ $159 7h
Set Handicap: Fokina (-1.5) vs Moutet (+1.5) BUY Fokina 37¢ $61 9h
Set Handicap: Noskova (-1.5) vs Parry (+1.5) SELL Noskova 100¢ $239 10h
Set Handicap: Noskova (-1.5) vs Parry (+1.5) BUY Noskova 68¢ $164 11h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 61¢ $164 11h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 64¢ $176 12h
ITF Zhengzhou: Junhan Zhang vs Ekaterina Yashina BUY Ekaterina Yashina 46¢ $51 13h
ITF Zhengzhou: Chenting Zhu vs Jia-Jing Lu BUY Jia-Jing Lu 55¢ $51 14h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $152 22h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 60¢ $101 22h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 10¢ $14 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 107 history records