Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:21:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F5 0xf545…305b crypto 1280 markets active 0h ago coverage 61d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 61d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$16,405 (+49%) realized +$16,424 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate63%1039W / 603L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day39.5pace
Fees−$70est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,773now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 61d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$722
sports 14% +$1,610
other 3% +$203
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-33.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 406 -90.2% -91.1% 5% 4% -23.2%
≤30d 587 -66.1% -69.3% 26% 7% -18.5%
≤90d 1642 -26.0% -33.0% 63% 7% -12.8%
all 1642 -26.0% -33.0% 63% 7% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.0% 7% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -39.4% 6% -21.2%
15% -45.3% 6% -28.8%
20% -50.6% 5% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$10 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$1,773
Realized+$16,424
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses1039 / 603
Est. fees paid−$70
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1642 / 1280
History coverage61d ⚠
Avg bet$26
Trades / day39.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 1642 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Under 72¢ 72¢ $992 $985 −$7 (-1%)
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Under 43¢ 42¢ $215 $212 −$2 (-1%)
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 Over 37¢ 40¢ $185 $198 +$12 (+7%)
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $168 $164 −$4 (-2%)
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? Yes 14¢ 20¢ $98 $144 +$45 (+46%)
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 Over 19¢ 22¢ $56 $64 +$7 (+13%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Under 42¢ 23¢ $8 $5 −$4 (-45%)
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 1 Sweden? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $70 $2 −$67 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 492 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 26 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 72¢ $1,000 17m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 42¢ $9 23m
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 21¢ $172 32m
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 14¢ $72 56m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 64¢ $189 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 29¢ $89 1h
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 14¢ $101 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $140 3h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $43 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $45 3h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 43¢ $219 7h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 19¢ $58 8h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $188 8h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $56 8h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 43¢ $13 25h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 43¢ $87 25h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 63¢ $191 28h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 47¢ $48 28h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $67 32h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $85 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 15¢ $77 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $83 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 21¢ $1 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 21¢ $6 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 21¢ $1 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 21¢ $7 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 21¢ $4 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 21¢ $85 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 21¢ $6 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 21¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,772.92 · official $1,739.92 · 3500 history records