Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:53:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf54d…ca0f crypto 109 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$79 (-6%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate39%43W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days+$32
14 days+$32
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$125
crypto 25% −$8
other 14% +$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -4.0% -13.1% 43% 33% -1.2%
≤30d 56 -10.8% -19.3% 39% 30% -11.4%
≤90d 109 -14.6% -22.7% 39% 31% -16.2%
all 109 -14.6% -22.7% 39% 31% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 31% -16.2%
10% -30.1% 24% -24.3%
15% -36.8% 22% -31.6%
20% -43.0% 17% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$8 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses43 / 66
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)109 / 109
History coverage66d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 109 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$17 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +50%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 +$13 +86%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $14 −$13 -94%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? Jun 13 $20 +$14 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $16 −$3 -18%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$4 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$3 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +30%
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$103 +1077%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$5 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
T20 Blast: Essex vs Kent Jun 09 $13 −$6 -46%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Lancashire Jun 09 $13 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
T20 Series Pakistan vs Zimbabwe, Women: Pakistan vs Zimbabwe May 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $22 −$12 -57%
Internationaux de Strasbourg, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs So May 16 $21 −$6 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 15? SELL Down 3¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 5¢ $5 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $25 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 14h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $15 14h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 3¢ $3 16h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 11¢ $11 17h
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 2d
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $10 2d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 2¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 12? SELL Down 29¢ $11 2d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 12¢ $11 2d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria SELL Nigeria 2¢ $0 2d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria BUY Nigeria 58¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 251 history records