Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:15:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf550…0a51 crypto 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$41 (-26%) realized −$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-49.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -44.4% -49.7% 44% 33% -45.2%
≤30d 9 -44.4% -49.7% 44% 33% -45.2%
≤90d 9 -44.4% -49.7% 44% 33% -45.2%
all 9 -44.4% -49.7% 44% 33% -45.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.7% 33% -45.2%
10% -54.5% 22% -50.4%
15% -58.9% 11% -55.2%
20% -62.9% 0% -59.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$17 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $20 +$7 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$2 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $27 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $28 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 18 history records