Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:26:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
F5 0xf555…b36b sports 121 markets active 4d ago coverage 199d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$322 (+9%) realized +$322 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate56%67W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$82
7 days+$752
14 days+$753
30 days+$720
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$267
other 12% +$211
politics 1% +$2
crypto 1% +$5
world 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +59.4% +44.3% 61% 61% +42.7%
≤30d 48 +43.5% +29.8% 58% 58% +25.9%
≤90d 73 +17.4% +6.2% 51% 51% +9.0%
all 119 +12.3% +1.6% 56% 54% +3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.6% 54% +3.2%
10% -8.1% 51% -6.6%
15% -17.0% 47% -15.7%
20% -25.1% 39% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$26 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

199d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$322
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses67 / 52
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)119 / 121
History coverage199d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 119 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $35 +$41 +120%
United States vs. Australia: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $53 +$40 +76%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $46 +$59 +130%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $30 −$29 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $36 −$35 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $22 −$22 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $99 +$64 +65%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 17 $85 +$142 +168%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $51 +$60 +119%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND England vs. Croat Jun 17 $10 +$97 +944%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $33 +$72 +222%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $26 +$83 +325%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $61 +$79 +129%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $40 +$18 +44%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 17 $8 +$16 +197%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $99 +$67 +67%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $53 +$34 +65%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $31 +$43 +140%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $51 +$51 +101%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $37 −$37 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $38 −$37 -98%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Top Esports Challenger (+1.5) Jun 15 $62 +$18 +29%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) Jun 15 $40 +$22 +54%
Sadio Mané: 2+ shots Jun 15 $30 −$29 -99%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $50 +$79 +158%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $19 +$21 +109%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $75 −$74 -99%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 12 $24 +$34 +140%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $35 +$26 +73%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $40 +$25 +62%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 3 Winner May 25 $83 −$82 -98%
Game Handicap: DK.C (-1.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (+1.5) May 25 $49 +$34 +70%
Los Angeles FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 2.5 May 25 $57 +$54 +94%
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $10 +$24 +230%
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Dplus KIA (+2.5) May 25 $59 −$57 -98%
Los Angeles FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 1.5 May 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) May 25 $19 −$19 -98%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) May 25 $30 +$8 +29%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi May 25 $24 +$31 +129%
Spread: FC Machida Zelvia (-1.5) May 22 $17 −$16 -98%
Game Handicap: KRX (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5) May 22 $25 +$29 +116%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $30 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $35 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 35¢ $36 3d
United States vs. Australia: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $53 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $51 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $46 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND C BUY 45¢ $51 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 25¢ $22 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $99 4d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $51 4d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 37¢ $85 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND England vs. Croat BUY $10 4d
England vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 30¢ $33 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 23¢ $26 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 37¢ $36 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $20 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $12 4d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $99 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 43¢ $61 5d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 29¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 5d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $31 5d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $53 5d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $102 5d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 62¢ $37 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 30¢ $5 6d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 36¢ $38 6d
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Top Esports Challenger (+1.5) SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $80 6d
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Top Esports Challenger (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 77¢ $62 6d
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $62 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 233 history records