Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:56:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F5 0xf557…919f crypto 142 markets active 1h ago coverage 188d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+0%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%137W / 4L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$8
weather 6% +$6
other 0% $0
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 20 +0.1% -9.4% 95% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 67 +0.5% -9.1% 97% 1% -9.1%
all 141 -0.2% -9.7% 97% 1% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 1% -9.2%
10% -18.3% 1% -17.9%
15% -26.2% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.77 per $1 lost it wins $4.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

188d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses137 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)141 / 142
History coverage188d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 30? May 30 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 28? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? May 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? May 21 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 21? May 20 $30 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19? May 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 17? May 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 16? May 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 15? May 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14? May 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 13? May 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 12? May 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11? May 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on May 10? May 10 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 9? May 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 8? May 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 7? May 07 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 6? May 06 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 4? May 04 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 3? May 03 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 2? May 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 1? May 01 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 29? May 01 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 28? Apr 29 $29 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 26? Apr 28 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or higher on April 25 Apr 26 $29 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 25? Apr 25 $29 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 23? Apr 24 $26 +$4 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 22? Apr 23 $24 +$2 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 21? Apr 22 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 20? Apr 21 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 17? Apr 20 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 14? Apr 15 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 13? Apr 14 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $31 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $31 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $31 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $31 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $31 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $31 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $30 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $30 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $30 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $30 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $30 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $30 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $30 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $30 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $30 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $30 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $30 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 21? SELL Yes 99¢ $30 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $30 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 17? BUY No 100¢ $30 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $30 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $30 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.98 · official $30.98 (match) · 287 history records