Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:13:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf559…8a92 weather 72 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (239 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-3%) realized −$8 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day239.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$162now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 65% +$1
other 35% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -8.6% -17.3% 0% 0% -17.3%
≤30d 1 -8.6% -17.3% 0% 0% -17.3%
≤90d 1 -8.6% -17.3% 0% 0% -17.3%
all 1 -8.6% -17.3% 0% 0% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover239.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.3% 0% -17.3%
10% ← realistic here -25.2% 0% -25.2%
15% -32.4% 0% -32.4%
20% -39.0% 0% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$8 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$162
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Open positions71
Markets (closed)1 / 72
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day239.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 71 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? Yes 30¢ 34¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 16? Yes 48¢ 50¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 16? Yes 38¢ 36¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 17? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 16? Yes 28¢ 31¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? Yes 25¢ 30¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Yes 33¢ 35¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? Yes 52¢ 54¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Yes 45¢ 48¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? Yes 34¢ 32¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 16? No 71¢ 68¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 15? No 58¢ 51¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? Yes 22¢ 28¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? Yes 13¢ 15¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? Yes 47¢ 51¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 16? Yes 45¢ 47¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 15? Yes 25¢ 25¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 16? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+102%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? No 64¢ 64¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $90 −$8 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 3m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 65¢ $1 5m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 6m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 6m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 6m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 6m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 7m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 7m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 7m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 7m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 16? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 11m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 12m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $82 15m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 16m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 18m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 20m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 20m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 21m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 23m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 23m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 23m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 23m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 23m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 23m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 21¢ $1 27m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 30m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 30m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 30m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $162.12 · official $162.13 (match) · 239 history records