Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:56:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf559…a067 world 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$1,027 (-5%) realized +$615 · open −$1,642
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate81%34W / 8L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$490per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$373now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$946
14 days−$946
30 days−$626
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 93% −$2,567
finance 4% +$111
other 2% −$88
crypto 1% +$12
economics 0% +$4
tech 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -33.4% -39.8% 40% 40% -21.5%
≤30d 7 -22.1% -29.5% 57% 43% -15.0%
≤90d 17 +9.4% -1.0% 76% 71% -8.5%
all 42 -1.4% -10.8% 81% 40% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 40% -13.7%
10% -19.3% 21% -21.9%
15% -27.1% 12% -29.5%
20% -34.3% 5% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$442 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$373
Realized+$615
Unrealized−$1,642
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses34 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage117d
Avg bet$490
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No $2,015 $373 −$1,642 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $2,825 −$1,181 -42%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $1,900 +$530 +28%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $1,443 +$675 +47%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 12 $270 −$270 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $700 −$700 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $2,561 +$320 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 29 $684 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 11 $200 +$23 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 02 $25 +$8 +31%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 02 $302 +$88 +29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $282 +$111 +39%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 17 $300 +$43 +14%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $51 −$3 -7%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 13 $120 +$80 +67%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 13 $198 +$102 +52%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 13 $524 +$240 +46%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 24 $262 +$82 +31%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Mar 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Mar 16 $118 −$118 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 13? Mar 13 $170 +$22 +13%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 13? Mar 13 $166 +$32 +19%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by March 13? Mar 13 $279 +$19 +7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by March 13? Mar 12 $170 +$38 +22%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Mar 09 $300 +$30 +10%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8? Mar 08 $195 +$28 +14%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31? Mar 08 $300 +$23 +8%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7? Mar 08 $951 +$72 +8%
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 7, 2026? Mar 07 $100 −$75 -74%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 07 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? Mar 06 $925 +$25 +3%
US forces enter Iran by March 3? Mar 04 $100 +$2 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $986 −$986 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 28 $300 +$18 +6%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 27 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Bitcoin outperform the S&P 500 in February 2026? Feb 27 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 27 $100 +$13 +13%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 26 $100 +$3 +3%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Feb 26 $100 +$5 +5%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 23 $100 +$2 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 23 $100 +$2 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 22 $199 +$8 +4%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 22 $100 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $500 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $300 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $300 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $150 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $30 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $20 31h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $50 31h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $20 32h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $100 32h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $60 36h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $20 36h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $66 44h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $20 44h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $50 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $30 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $31 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $100 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $100 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $2,430 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $100 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY No 54¢ $270 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 71¢ $73 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $55 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $145 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 71¢ $355 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $380 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $120 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,520 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $480 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,015 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $372.60 · official $372.60 (match) · 180 history records