Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:32:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf559…f462 sports 351 markets active 1h ago coverage 286d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$55,491 (+2%) realized +$94,041 · open −$38,550
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%189W / 146L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$6,510per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$14,071est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$113,605now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7,810
7 days+$33,541
14 days+$69,794
30 days+$74,261
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$78,724
other 14% +$1,971
world 10% −$29,355
politics 6% +$977
economics 2% −$5,621
crypto 1% −$1,505
tech 0% −$1,908
culture 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -12.6% -20.9% 47% 47% +18.0%
≤30d 80 +13.5% +2.7% 62% 61% +4.3%
≤90d 212 +5.8% -4.3% 60% 58% +1.4%
all 335 -0.3% -9.8% 56% 50% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 50% -5.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 44% -14.7%
15% -26.3% 39% -22.9%
20% -33.5% 33% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$9,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,520 vs −$3,997 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

286d coverage
Net worth$113,605
Realized+$94,041
Unrealized−$38,550
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses189 / 146
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$14,071
Open positions16
Markets (closed)335 / 351
History coverage286d
Avg bet$6,510
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 335 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 89¢ $39,314 $39,320 +$6 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 65¢ 60¢ $27,800 $25,631 −$2,169 (-8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $14,000 $13,692 −$308 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 83¢ $10,000 $9,958 −$42 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $6,000 $5,699 −$301 (-5%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $4,500 $4,523 +$23 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $5,500 $4,408 −$1,092 (-20%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 49¢ 40¢ $4,900 $4,050 −$850 (-17%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $2,500 $2,699 +$199 (+8%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 78¢ 4¢ $20,924 $1,137 −$19,787 (-95%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1,000 $980 −$20 (-2%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $700 $542 −$158 (-22%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $500 $534 +$34 (+7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 77¢ 3¢ $10,648 $381 −$10,267 (-96%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 29¢ 2¢ $870 $48 −$822 (-94%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 57¢ 0¢ $3,000 $3 −$2,997 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 106 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2,904 +$4,096 +141%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $5,063 −$5,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5,064 −$5,000 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 14 $5,066 +$3,863 +76%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $10,150 +$9,850 +97%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $7,617 +$8,008 +105%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $30,414 +$25,142 +83%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 10 $6,100 −$6,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 10 $2,547 −$2,500 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 10 $5,072 −$5,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $13,176 +$10,494 +80%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 08 $1,750 −$1,750 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $10,069 +$2,918 +29%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $3,603 −$3,580 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Jun 08 $2,025 −$2,000 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 08 $15,216 −$15,000 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $10,138 −$10,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $3,054 +$4,446 +146%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1,022 −$1,000 -98%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 08 $1,012 −$1,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $3,049 −$3,000 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $30,000 +$1,151 +4%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $3,047 +$3,203 +105%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $3,045 +$2,955 +97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1,003 +$108 +11%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10,138 +$8,381 +83%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2,038 +$3,517 +172%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $5,075 −$5,000 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $15,220 +$14,191 +93%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 06 $5,066 +$3,863 +76%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $10,024 +$4,018 +40%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $10,096 −$10,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $3,054 +$4,446 +146%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $10,108 +$5,548 +55%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $4,050 +$2,846 +70%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $4,045 +$2,355 +58%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $4,903 +$3,097 +63%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $5,076 +$5,128 +101%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 04 $5,070 +$4,363 +86%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 04 $3,046 −$3,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $4,958 +$3,175 +64%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $1,002 +$769 +77%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $2,028 +$1,745 +86%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $2,029 −$2,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $1,822 +$1,178 +65%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $2,020 +$965 +48%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $1,519 +$1,112 +73%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $4,844 +$3,693 +76%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5 May 31 $5,069 +$4,190 +83%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $6,076 +$4,269 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $5,052 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $514 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $514 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $514 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $5,052 9h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $3,039 9h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $5,052 9h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $749 15h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $27 15h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $27 15h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $670 15h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $2 15h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $113 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $4 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $4 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $28 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $3 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $1,094 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $4 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $126 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $32 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $4 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $1,285 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $45 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $36 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $27 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $18 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $36 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $3 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $143 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113,604.92 · official $113,604.92 (match) · 2511 history records