trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +1.1% | -8.5% | 67% | 0% | -8.5% |
| ≤30d | 6 | -2.3% | -11.6% | 33% | 0% | -10.4% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -1.3% | -10.7% | 44% | 0% | -10.0% |
| all | 28 | -1.7% | -11.0% | 43% | 4% | -9.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.0% | 4% | -9.6% |
| 10% | -19.5% | 0% | -18.3% |
| 15% | -27.3% | 0% | -26.2% |
| 20% | -34.4% | 0% | -33.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | $64 | $64 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Yes | 62¢ | 46¢ | $1 | $0 | −$0 (-27%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 23 | $73 | +$4 | +5% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | Jun 23 | $74 | −$1 | -1% |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 23 | $74 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 26 | $6 | $0 | -2% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | May 26 | $52 | −$4 | -7% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 25 | $24 | −$2 | -8% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | May 23 | $52 | $0 | +0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | May 23 | $77 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | May 22 | $17 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? | Dec 29 | $72 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Dec 16 | $7 | $0 | -2% |
| Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? | Nov 20 | $1 | $0 | -47% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Nov 14 | $7 | +$1 | +17% |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Sep 13 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will SP win the fourth most seats in the Norway election? | Sep 12 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? | Sep 10 | $7 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? | Sep 10 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Sep 10 | $7 | −$1 | -9% |
| Will Ben Griffin win the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship? | Aug 10 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be between 76-77°F on August 7? | Aug 10 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Brian Campbell be the first round leader at the 2025 FedEx St. Ju | Aug 10 | $73 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? | Aug 08 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15? | Aug 07 | $8 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? | Aug 07 | $4 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Aug 07 | $66 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150K in August? | Aug 07 | $15 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? | Aug 06 | $11 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Aug 06 | $2 | $0 | +0% |