Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:14:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
F5 0xf55e…f582 world 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 80d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$36 (-1%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$335per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% +$1
sports 29% −$24
other 21% +$8
politics 15% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.3% -8.3% 100% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 3 +0.5% -9.0% 67% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 10 -9.3% -17.9% 50% 0% -10.2%
all 10 -9.3% -17.9% 50% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 0% -10.2%
10% -25.8% 0% -18.8%
15% -33.0% 0% -26.7%
20% -39.5% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$23 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage80d
Avg bet$335
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? Jun 27 $382 +$4 +1%
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31? Jun 27 $394 +$6 +2%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Jun 18 $287 −$3 -1%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026? May 12 $489 −$11 -2%
Spread: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona (-2.5) May 11 $479 +$9 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 09 $479 $0 +0%
Spread: Gaziantep FK (-2.5) Apr 26 $440 +$22 +5%
Spread: Kasımpaşa SK (-1.5) Apr 24 $56 −$56 -100%
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? Apr 24 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the May Meeting? Apr 09 $301 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $386 13m
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $382 1h
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31? SELL No 98¢ $400 1h
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31? BUY No 96¢ $394 5h
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $284 9d
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $287 9d
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026? SELL No 98¢ $11 46d
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026? SELL No 97¢ $39 46d
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026? SELL No 97¢ $39 46d
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026? SELL No 97¢ $39 46d
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026? SELL No 97¢ $39 46d
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026? SELL No 97¢ $39 46d
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026? SELL No 97¢ $39 46d
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026? SELL No 97¢ $39 46d
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026? SELL No 98¢ $39 46d
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026? SELL No 98¢ $39 46d
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026? SELL No 98¢ $39 46d
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026? SELL No 98¢ $39 46d
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026? SELL No 98¢ $39 46d
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $489 47d
Spread: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona (-2.5) BUY Sevilla FC 98¢ $479 49d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $479 49d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $479 49d
Spread: Gaziantep FK (-2.5) BUY Eyüpspor 95¢ $345 63d
Spread: Gaziantep FK (-2.5) BUY Eyüpspor 95¢ $95 63d
Spread: Kasımpaşa SK (-1.5) BUY Kasımpaşa SK $28 64d
Spread: Kasımpaşa SK (-1.5) BUY Kasımpaşa SK $27 64d
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? SELL Yes $23 64d
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? SELL Yes $23 64d
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? BUY Yes $22 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 37 history records