Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:28:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf561…7c7c crypto 269 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$358 (-3%) realized −$358 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate30%82W / 187L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$110
7 days+$48
14 days+$149
30 days+$149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$338
finance 28% −$164
sports 9% +$353
world 5% −$254
other 4% −$120
economics 2% +$6
politics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 163 +7.1% -3.1% 26% 24% -5.4%
≤30d 170 +9.1% -1.3% 28% 26% -3.4%
≤90d 224 +8.7% -1.6% 32% 31% -9.6%
all 269 +3.3% -6.5% 30% 29% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 29% -12.0%
10% -15.5% 26% -20.5%
15% -23.6% 25% -28.1%
20% -31.1% 21% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$27 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$358
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses82 / 187
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)269 / 269
History coverage150d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 269 Trades
no open positions (143 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 21 $37 −$14 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $42 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 20 $37 +$64 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$18 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$42 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $63 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$19 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$9 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$6 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $62 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$36 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$22 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $104 −$73 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $52 +$95 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $101 +$19 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -95%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$12 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 18 $42 −$21 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $31 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $31 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $45 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $50 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $32 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $42 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $31 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $31 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $30 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $31 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $17 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $44 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $52 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $8 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 691 history records