Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:34:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F5 0xf561…f20d crypto 226 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$532 (+3%) realized +$591 · open −$59
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate68%152W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day30.0pace
Fees−$113est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$201now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$406
7 days−$264
14 days+$109
30 days+$136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% +$50
sports 35% +$76
other 3% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 -7.5% -16.3% 61% 47% -12.8%
≤30d 222 -3.2% -12.4% 68% 46% -8.7%
≤90d 222 -3.2% -12.4% 68% 46% -8.7%
all 222 -3.2% -12.4% 68% 46% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 46% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 30% -17.4%
15% -28.4% 21% -25.4%
20% -35.5% 12% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$45 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$201
Realized+$591
Unrealized−$59
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses152 / 70
Est. fees paid−$113
Open positions4
Markets (closed)222 / 226
History coverage16d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 222 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Over 77¢ 64¢ $150 $125 −$25 (-17%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score No 57¢ 71¢ $50 $62 +$12 (+25%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Under 7¢ 10¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+43%)
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage FlyQuest 40¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $100 +$5 +5%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $20 +$8 +37%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$8 +81%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $70 +$17 +24%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $41 −$15 -36%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $211 −$38 -18%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 +$22 +44%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $391 +$204 +52%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 −$19 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$18 +18%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $52 −$52 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $30 +$16 +53%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 +$16 +46%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $81 −$24 -30%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$27 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$19 -91%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $46 −$13 -28%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +3%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $111 −$87 -78%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $49 +$31 +64%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $42 +$9 +22%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $21 +$9 +41%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $107 +$3 +3%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $40 +$9 +23%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $227 −$226 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$7 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$12 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $39 −$27 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $37 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $37 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $22 +$13 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$10 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $42 −$35 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -94%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $56 −$55 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$2 -12%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $39 −$39 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $31 −$28 -91%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 16 $40 +$17 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $151 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 7¢ $10 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $51 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 95¢ $105 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $100 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 47¢ $28 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 33¢ $20 2h
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY FlyQuest 30¢ $10 3h
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY FlyQuest 43¢ $41 3h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 90¢ $18 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $88 4h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 SELL Over 27¢ $26 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 22¢ $10 5h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 49¢ $10 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 79¢ $70 5h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $73 5h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $50 5h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $41 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 77¢ $561 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $336 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 80¢ $171 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 51¢ $34 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 93¢ $200 6h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 82¢ $55 6h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 61¢ $51 6h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $31 6h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 10¢ $20 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $0 7h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 7h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 9¢ $21 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $201.30 · official $201.14 (match) · 567 history records