Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:18:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf562…b2aa crypto 129 markets active 7h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$62 (+3%) realized +$66 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate58%74W / 54L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days+$7
14 days+$50
30 days+$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$77
other 6% −$30
sports 0% −$7
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -6.9% -15.8% 60% 42% -9.0%
≤30d 128 -0.5% -10.0% 58% 51% -7.5%
≤90d 128 -0.5% -10.0% 58% 51% -7.5%
all 128 -0.5% -10.0% 58% 51% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 51% -7.5%
10% -18.6% 45% -16.3%
15% -26.5% 43% -24.4%
20% -33.7% 41% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$66
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses74 / 54
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 129
History coverage25d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 6¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$9 +81%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $55 +$7 +13%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $51 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $51 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $11 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $51 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $11 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $55 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +70%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $35 −$35 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$7 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 11 $61 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 11 $60 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $61 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $62 +$60 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 10 $60 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $60 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $60 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 10 $61 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $51 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$8 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $51 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $50 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 62¢ $5 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 93¢ $62 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $55 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.21 · official $1.21 (match) · 234 history records