Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:41:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F5 0xf562…bd22 crypto 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 546d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate80%49W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$17
crypto 12% +$2
other 3% $0
politics 2% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 61 -0.3% -9.8% 80% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 37% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

546d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses49 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage546d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 03 $66 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? May 05 $23 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in April? May 05 $55 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? Apr 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink dip to $4 in March? Apr 01 $41 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in February? Mar 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in February? Mar 03 $61 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in January? Feb 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? Feb 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in January? Feb 01 $51 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,250 in December? Jan 01 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Jan 01 $49 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.20 in November? Dec 03 $37 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October? Nov 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? Nov 04 $21 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 04 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in September? Oct 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? Oct 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.00 in August? Sep 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? Sep 01 $54 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? Aug 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? Jul 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? Jul 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in May? Jun 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 05 $17 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in April? May 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? May 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.28 in April? May 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 04 $7 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on Mexico before May? May 04 $10 $0 +1%
Will Trump audit Ukraine aid before May? May 04 $12 $0 +0%
Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May? May 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the most seats in Saskatchewan in th Apr 21 $61 $0 -0%
Will 'Thunderbolts*' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 21 $68 $0 -0%
Will Jarred McCain win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 14 $65 $0 -0%
Will any other candidate win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 13 $70 $0 -0%
Will Jaxson Dart be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 13 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 10 $55 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in March? Apr 01 $5 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $2,800.00 again by March 31? Apr 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Apr 01 $12 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $80 in March? Apr 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $6,053 −$12 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 03 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $70 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 29d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $66 31d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? BUY No 100¢ $23 61d
Will XRP reach $2.40 in April? BUY No 100¢ $55 62d
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $27 93d
Will Chainlink dip to $4 in March? BUY No 100¢ $41 93d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $4 121d
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in February? BUY No 100¢ $16 121d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in February? BUY No 100¢ $61 122d
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? BUY No 100¢ $14 149d
Will Solana dip to $40 in January? BUY No 100¢ $13 151d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in January? BUY No 100¢ $51 151d
Will BNB reach $1,250 in December? BUY No 100¢ $24 181d
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $49 182d
Will XRP reach $4.20 in November? BUY No 100¢ $37 211d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October? BUY No 100¢ $12 241d
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? BUY No 100¢ $21 241d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 98¢ $40 242d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $15 271d
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in September? BUY No 100¢ $22 272d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? BUY No 100¢ $35 273d
Will XRP reach $5.00 in August? BUY No 100¢ $17 303d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? BUY No 100¢ $54 303d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $21 333d
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? BUY No 100¢ $41 334d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? BUY No 100¢ $30 362d
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $37 363d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $14 393d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 393d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.23 · official $70.23 (match) · 126 history records