Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:31:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf562…4099 world 165 markets active 1h ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,584 (-2%) realized −$2,461 · open −$123
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate51%81W / 77L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$667per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$3,305now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$5,709
30 days−$6,751
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 84% +$1,567
crypto 6% −$3,961
other 5% −$194
finance 2% −$384
sports 2% +$1
politics 1% −$377
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 37 -61.0% -64.7% 24% 5% -42.3%
≤90d 65 -30.6% -37.2% 46% 18% -14.6%
all 158 -4.5% -13.6% 51% 32% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 32% -12.4%
10% -21.8% 23% -20.8%
15% -29.4% 16% -28.4%
20% -36.3% 13% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$144 vs −$196 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$3,305
Realized−$2,461
Unrealized−$123
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses81 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions7
Markets (closed)158 / 165
History coverage531d
Avg bet$667
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 86¢ 84¢ $2,547 $2,502 −$44 (-2%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 73¢ 80¢ $402 $444 +$43 (+11%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $289 $256 −$33 (-11%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $183 $94 −$90 (-49%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 99¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+18%)
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump announces tariff for Iran military cooperation by April 17? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? Jun 18 $50 −$2 -3%
Will Iran strike Cyprus by April 30, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 13, 10AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 13? Jun 18 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 15? Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15? Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? Jun 18 $39 −$36 -94%
Will Solana dip to $30 in February? Jun 18 $198 −$172 -87%
Will Solana dip to $50 in February? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 13? Jun 18 $89 −$89 -100%
Will Solana dip to $60 in March? Jun 18 $500 −$500 -100%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 11? Jun 18 $456 −$456 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 18 $1,012 −$1,012 -100%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6? Jun 18 $5,425 −$3,361 -62%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 7? Jun 18 $201 −$87 -43%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $188 +$5 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $1,997 +$219 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $1,678 −$878 -52%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $3,716 −$346 -9%
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 12 $100 −$8 -8%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 10 $65 +$40 +62%
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 09 $64 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $29 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 01 $607 +$16 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $581 +$26 +4%
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by May 31? May 31 $1,390 +$103 +7%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? May 31 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 May 30 $13 +$2 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $10,578 +$1,209 +11%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 26 $1,089 −$75 -7%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 20 $5,065 −$173 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $95 +$9 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 11 $469 +$76 +16%
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by May 31? May 06 $488 +$24 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 04 $121 +$66 +54%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? May 03 $1,079 +$84 +8%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? May 01 $7,426 +$442 +6%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Apr 30 $108 +$39 +36%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Apr 28 $183 +$4 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 27 $4,712 +$757 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 86¢ $101 57m
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 86¢ $193 1h
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 86¢ $239 1h
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 86¢ $291 1h
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 86¢ $104 1h
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 86¢ $173 1h
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 86¢ $95 1h
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 86¢ $173 1h
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 86¢ $85 1h
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 86¢ $225 1h
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 86¢ $877 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2,557 27h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $205 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $86 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $119 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY Yes 22¢ $1 8d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY Yes 22¢ $141 8d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY Yes 22¢ $0 8d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY Yes 22¢ $147 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $288 8d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $183 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $180 8d
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $4 8d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 76¢ $197 8d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 20¢ $31 11d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 20¢ $10 11d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 19¢ $109 11d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 19¢ $20 11d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 19¢ $19 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,305.15 · official $3,305.52 (match) · 1920 history records