Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:23:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf565…690b crypto 516 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$44 (-1%) realized −$42 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate54%279W / 236L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day22.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$73
7 days−$93
14 days−$138
30 days−$194
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$176
other 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 134 -11.6% -20.0% 61% 50% -18.8%
≤30d 515 -5.8% -14.8% 54% 48% -12.9%
≤90d 515 -5.8% -14.8% 54% 48% -12.9%
all 515 -5.8% -14.8% 54% 48% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 48% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 42% -21.2%
15% -30.4% 34% -28.8%
20% -37.2% 28% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$42
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses279 / 236
Open positions1
Markets (closed)515 / 516
History coverage25d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day22.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 515 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Up 67¢ 24¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$8 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.05 · official $2.31 · 1205 history records