Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:35:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F5 0xf567…c3dc politics 128 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$49 (-0%) realized −$52 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate19%24W / 102L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$880per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$864now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$6
14 days−$14
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% −$60
other 31% +$37
sports 13% −$46
world 3% +$7
culture 2% −$3
crypto 1% +$8
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 57 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
all 126 +1.0% -8.6% 19% 13% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 13% -9.6%
10% -17.3% 12% -18.2%
15% -25.3% 9% -26.1%
20% -32.7% 8% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$964) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$8 · ×3.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$864
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses24 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)126 / 128
History coverage132d
Avg bet$880
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $546 $549 +$4 (+1%)
Will Sacramento Kings win the 2027 NBA Finals? No 99¢ 99¢ $315 $315 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 26 $3,790 −$5 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 25 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $457 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $485 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $479 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $5,084 −$5 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $893 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $864 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $859 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $858 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $3,098 −$3 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $800 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $917 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $399 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $698 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $595 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $683 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 04 $146 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $120 in May? Jun 04 $263 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 04 $387 +$2 +1%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $1,093 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 28 $211 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $229 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $213 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 24 $311 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $399 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $761 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $862 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $1,762 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $791 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $984 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $761 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $896 −$1 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $824 −$1 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $732 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $2,407 −$2 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $3,130 −$3 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,876 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $867 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $875 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $2,437 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $886 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $978 −$1 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 11 $2,536 −$3 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 09 $3,491 −$4 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $964 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $1,463 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $692 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $2,324 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sacramento Kings win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $315 1h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $472 23h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $472 29h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $493 44h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $494 46h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $456 6d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $457 7d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $484 7d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $485 7d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $478 8d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $479 8d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $482 8d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $483 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $546 11d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $891 12d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $893 12d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $863 13d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $864 13d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $899 14d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $901 14d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $858 14d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $859 15d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $857 15d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $858 15d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $949 20d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $950 20d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $799 21d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $800 21d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $916 21d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $917 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $864.47 · official $864.47 (match) · 431 history records