Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:44:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf56a…a946 other 151 markets active 2h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,378 (-1%) realized −$1,378 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate18%27W / 123L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,132per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$335now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$23
14 days−$33
30 days−$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$70
politics 36% −$71
sports 13% −$1,392
world 2% −$1
economics 2% −$5
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% −$1
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 33 +0.3% -9.3% 9% 6% -9.7%
≤90d 94 -12.7% -21.0% 4% 2% -11.0%
all 150 -2.8% -12.1% 18% 8% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 8% -10.3%
10% -20.5% 8% -18.9%
15% -28.2% 7% -26.7%
20% -35.2% 6% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,495) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$17 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$335
Realized−$1,378
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses27 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)150 / 151
History coverage144d
Avg bet$1,132
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $334 $335 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1,815 −$3 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $686 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $2,129 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $4,819 −$5 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $3,460 −$4 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $4,078 −$5 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,432 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $750 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $2,149 −$3 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $3,188 −$3 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $693 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $758 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $749 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $920 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 05 $77 +$61 +79%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 04 $52 +$69 +134%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $2,959 −$3 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $1,861 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,588 −$2 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $397 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $906 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $1,650 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $1,123 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $1,525 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $549 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $431 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $854 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $1,824 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $2,259 −$1 -0%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $80 −$80 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $3,085 −$3 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $696 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $694 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 21 $711 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 20 $816 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? May 19 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $1,076 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $2,288 −$2 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $715 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 09 $1,050 −$1 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $1,070 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $4,245 −$5 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $1,080 −$2 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 08 $1,087 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $2,039 −$3 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,083 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $1,052 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $627 1h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $628 3h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $684 3h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $686 3d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $652 3d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $653 3d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $689 3d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $689 3d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $286 4d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $286 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $653 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $654 5d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $630 5d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $631 6d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $749 7d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $750 7d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $334 9d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,028 11d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,030 11d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $862 11d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $864 12d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $814 12d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $815 12d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $692 12d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $693 12d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $757 12d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $758 12d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $748 14d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $749 14d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $919 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $334.54 · official $334.54 (match) · 505 history records