Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:23:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F5 0xf56c…fcbd sports 629 markets active 2h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,359 (-4%) realized −$4,476 · open +$117
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%313W / 315L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Fees−$1,486est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$481now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$205
7 days−$1,321
14 days−$1,797
30 days−$10,500
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$4,546
other 9% −$1,040
crypto 0% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -2.3% -11.6% 47% 47% -22.8%
≤30d 283 -16.5% -24.4% 40% 40% -29.2%
≤90d 628 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 49% -14.1%
all 628 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 49% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 49% -14.1%
10% -18.3% 45% -22.3%
15% -26.2% 40% -29.8%
20% -33.4% 32% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +12% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$148 vs −$165 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$481
Realized−$4,476
Unrealized+$117
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses313 / 315
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$1,486
Open positions1
Markets (closed)628 / 629
History coverage78d
Avg bet$181
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 628 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Over 67¢ 88¢ $364 $481 +$117 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 106 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $101 +$84 +83%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $261 +$125 +48%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $201 +$110 +55%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $101 +$32 +32%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $101 +$63 +62%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $201 +$52 +26%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $215 −$213 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $186 +$29 +16%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $149 +$36 +24%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $232 −$4 -2%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $110 −$109 -99%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $101 −$48 -47%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $60 +$48 +79%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $284 −$280 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $192 +$88 +46%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $150 +$46 +31%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $116 +$33 +29%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $326 −$320 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $223 +$204 +91%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $224 −$220 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $536 −$530 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $224 +$312 +139%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $223 −$220 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $876 −$870 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $225 +$654 +291%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $12 −$12 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $475 −$470 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $328 +$156 +48%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $279 −$275 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $153 +$230 +151%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $102 +$482 +471%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $99 −$97 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $207 −$203 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $204 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $51 +$201 +393%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $173 −$170 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $111 +$72 +65%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $191 +$256 +134%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $304 +$222 +73%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $101 +$38 +38%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $102 +$111 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $368 1h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 37¢ $102 3h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 54¢ $101 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $261 23h
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 64¢ $201 29h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Karen Khachanov 75¢ $101 30h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 75¢ $101 44h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 100¢ $164 44h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 34¢ $61 44h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 61¢ $101 44h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $253 45h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 79¢ $201 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 82¢ $215 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $215 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 86¢ $186 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $185 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 80¢ $149 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $149 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 77¢ $116 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 67¢ $110 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 54¢ $109 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 55¢ $117 2d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 35¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL 100 Thieves 37¢ $53 2d
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 67¢ $101 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 55¢ $60 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $284 2d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $280 2d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 68¢ $192 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 99¢ $196 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $481.36 · official $481.36 (match) · 1240 history records