Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:08:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf56c…4623 sports 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 193d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$493 (-7%) realized −$372 · open −$121
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%25W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days−$46
14 days−$90
30 days−$426
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$252
sports 31% −$383
finance 2% +$52
politics 1% −$35
world 0% −$16
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -53.4% -57.8% 26% 26% -32.7%
≤30d 50 +7.8% -2.4% 40% 40% -31.2%
≤90d 54 +6.7% -3.5% 41% 41% -31.1%
all 66 -1.0% -10.4% 38% 38% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 38% -17.0%
10% -19.0% 35% -24.9%
15% -26.8% 29% -32.2%
20% -34.0% 23% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$21 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

193d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$372
Unrealized−$121
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses25 / 41
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions6
Markets (closed)66 / 75
History coverage193d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 56¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Morocco? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Japan? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $20 +$15 +73%
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $20 +$17 +83%
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $10 +$7 +67%
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $20 +$16 +79%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $20 −$20 -99%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $5 +$4 +83%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 Mexico? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Brazil? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Morocco 0 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $51 +$7 +13%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $101 −$20 -20%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $51 +$55 +107%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 +$2 +11%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $20 +$12 +57%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 +$12 +60%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 +$6 +29%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $20 +$6 +29%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 +$11 +52%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $51 +$36 +71%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $61 −$60 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $557 −$4 -1%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $56 −$56 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $102 +$26 +25%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $10 +$7 +69%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $51 −$2 -4%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10 +$5 +46%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10 +$6 +60%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $20 +$15 +76%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $72 −$71 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $51 +$24 +48%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $120 −$119 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St Jun 02 $51 −$26 -51%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $30 5h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 5h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY 28¢ $30 5h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 7h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 7h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 7h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY 27¢ $30 7h
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $20 29h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $20 29h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY 32¢ $10 2d
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $20 2d
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $10 2d
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 5d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 Mexico? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 5d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Brazil? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Morocco 0 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 5d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 5d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 5d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $5 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 49¢ $58 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.82 · official $107.33 · 221 history records