Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:37:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf56c…ad84 weather 867 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 2d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1398 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$5,711 (+115%) realized +$5,609 · open +$102
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate8%23W / 260L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day1398.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$827now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$117
weather 23% +$1,134
other 9% +$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1398 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)+24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 283 +37.1% +24.0% 8% 7% -9.4%
≤30d 283 +37.1% +24.0% 8% 7% -9.4%
≤90d 283 +37.1% +24.0% 8% 7% -9.4%
all 283 +37.1% +24.0% 8% 7% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1398.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +24.0% 7% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here +12.2% 6% -18.1%
15% +1.3% 6% -26.0%
20% -8.6% 6% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +175% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$2 · ×25.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.26 per $1 lost it wins $2.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$827
Realized+$5,609
Unrealized+$102
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses23 / 260
Open positions244
Markets (closed)283 / 867
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1398.0
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 244 History 283 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 86¢ $144 $171 +$27 (+19%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 78¢ $130 $155 +$25 (+19%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 72¢ $158 $145 −$13 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? Yes 3¢ 99¢ $2 $63 +$61 (+3215%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? Yes 3¢ 34¢ $3 $34 +$31 (+1042%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 17? Yes 3¢ 23¢ $3 $23 +$20 (+682%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 17? Yes 3¢ 21¢ $3 $21 +$18 (+603%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 17? Yes 3¢ 18¢ $3 $17 +$14 (+483%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? Yes 3¢ 16¢ $3 $16 +$13 (+433%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 17? Yes 3¢ 79¢ $1 $16 +$15 (+2533%)
Will Colombia be the worst-placed South American nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 7¢ $6 $14 +$8 (+136%)
Will Ecuador be the worst-placed South American nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 8¢ $3 $12 +$9 (+305%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? Yes 1¢ 9¢ $1 $9 +$8 (+764%)
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 17? Yes 0¢ 7¢ $0 $7 +$6 (+2133%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? Yes 0¢ 5¢ $0 $5 +$5 (+2550%)
Will Ivory Coast finish last in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+160%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 18? Yes 1¢ 7¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+565%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 17? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+63%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 17? Yes 1¢ 5¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+375%)
Will Canada finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 3¢ 28¢ $0 $5 +$4 (+850%)
Will Mexico finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+95%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 17? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 17? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+250%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 256 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 14? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 14? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C or below on June 15? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 13? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C or below on June 14? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 14? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 14? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 14? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 13? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 14? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 13? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 13? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 15? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 13? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 13? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 13? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 14? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 15? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 14? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 14? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 12? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 14? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $52,000 on June 13? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 14? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 14? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 13? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 13? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 5m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 13m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 14m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 14m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19m
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 24m
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 24m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 25m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 25m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 27m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 29m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY Yes 0¢ $0 29m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 29m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 29m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 29m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 29m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 29m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 30m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 30m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 30m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 30m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 31m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 31m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 31m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 32m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 32m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $827.19 · official $815.02 · 3500 history records