Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:26:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F5 0xf579…9989 other 219 markets active 3h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$16,209 (+4%) realized +$15,789 · open +$420
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate60%110W / 74L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$1,678per market
Trades / day26.2pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$25,998now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$214
7 days+$2,998
14 days+$5,112
30 days+$1,694
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 40% +$4,115
world 27% +$8,116
other 22% +$10,737
tech 9% +$2,750
crypto 2% −$1,601
sports 1% −$298
politics 0% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +6.9% -3.3% 70% 35% -1.2%
≤30d 71 +1.9% -7.8% 62% 41% -8.2%
≤90d 184 +8.7% -1.6% 60% 35% -3.5%
all 184 +8.7% -1.6% 60% 35% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.6% 35% -3.5%
10% -11.1% 18% -12.7%
15% ← realistic here -19.7% 13% -21.1%
20% -27.5% 11% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$2,455) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +19% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$389 vs −$270 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.2 per $1 lost it wins $2.2
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$25,998
Realized+$15,789
Unrealized+$420
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses110 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions34
Markets (closed)184 / 219
History coverage69d
Avg bet$1,678
Trades / day26.2
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 184 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 99¢ $6,160 $6,912 +$753 (+12%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 81¢ 81¢ $6,049 $6,112 +$63 (+1%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 79¢ 93¢ $4,350 $5,125 +$775 (+18%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 84¢ $1,759 $1,690 −$69 (-4%)
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)? Yes 87¢ 92¢ $1,283 $1,343 +$60 (+5%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June? No 96¢ 98¢ $1,000 $1,019 +$19 (+2%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? No 94¢ 99¢ $940 $992 +$52 (+6%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,850 (HIGH) in June? No 88¢ 88¢ $496 $498 +$2 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 89¢ 61¢ $530 $362 −$168 (-32%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? Yes 77¢ 18¢ $1,030 $239 −$791 (-77%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 47¢ $275 $235 −$40 (-15%)
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 97¢ $200 $203 +$3 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-0%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 30¢ $105 $147 +$42 (+40%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $108 $110 +$2 (+2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $104 $101 −$2 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $98 $80 −$18 (-19%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 34¢ $42 $69 +$27 (+64%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 38¢ $50 $56 +$7 (+14%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 86¢ 40¢ $114 $53 −$61 (-54%)
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 21¢ $24 $52 +$28 (+118%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? No 92¢ 93¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $31 +$33 +109%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $189 +$11 +6%
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 17 $58 +$1 +2%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$1 -4%
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 17 $1,168 −$22 -2%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 +$49 +96%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$34 +66%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$15 -30%
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $54 −$44 -82%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 −$39 -77%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$40 +78%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 +$49 +97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $51 +$10 +20%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $51 +$29 +56%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 2.00T and 2.25T? Jun 15 $444 +$38 +9%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T? Jun 15 $1,693 +$46 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 15 $263 −$5 -2%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $54 −$54 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 14 $820 +$23 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 14 $1,087 +$17 +2%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $1,145 +$79 +7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $2,097 +$288 +14%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $4,585 +$631 +14%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $937 +$63 +7%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $1,289 +$82 +6%
Will SpaceX raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO? Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 12 $1,722 +$361 +21%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 12 $3,785 +$649 +17%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $970 −$12 -1%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 12 $1,012 −$24 -2%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $393 −$154 -39%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2,013 +$80 +4%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $104 +$20 +19%
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? Jun 12 $2,834 +$241 +8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $913 +$9 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 11 $2,521 +$498 +20%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $15 −$15 -98%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in June? Jun 10 $404 +$483 +120%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June? Jun 09 $318 +$147 +46%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 09 $4,450 +$786 +18%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $15 −$1 -6%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? Jun 05 $1,493 +$113 +8%
Will Mongolia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -87%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 in June? Jun 05 $321 +$195 +61%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in June? Jun 05 $3,196 +$440 +14%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June? Jun 05 $20 +$7 +35%
Will Hong Kong SAR vs. Mongolia end in a draw? Jun 05 $6 −$5 -88%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Jun 03 $33 −$33 -100%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu Jun 02 $9 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $206 2h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) SELL Jordan 100¢ $200 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 82¢ $2,116 3h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Jordan 94¢ $189 3h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 59¢ $2 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 39¢ $29 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $31 3h
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 46¢ $119 3h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 59¢ $7 3h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 59¢ $16 3h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 59¢ $32 4h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 59¢ $2 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $24 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $5 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $1 4h
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last tra BUY No 92¢ $50 5h
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 81¢ $4 5h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 57¢ $58 5h
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $1,766 7h
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $2,650 7h
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $883 7h
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $883 7h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $51 23h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2 SELL Yes 78¢ $16 25h
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $12 28h
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 29h
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $8 29h
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $5 29h
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $5 29h
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $9 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25,997.60 · official $25,998.37 (match) · 1994 history records