Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:59:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf579…1c3d weather 126 markets active 13h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$25 (-6%) realized −$16 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%22W / 96L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$82
7 days+$38
14 days+$25
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 91% +$4
politics 9% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 +6.6% -3.6% 16% 16% +1.4%
≤30d 118 -11.0% -19.4% 19% 19% -17.7%
≤90d 118 -11.0% -19.4% 19% 19% -17.7%
all 118 -11.0% -19.4% 19% 19% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 19% -17.7%
10% -27.1% 19% -25.6%
15% -34.2% 19% -32.8%
20% -40.6% 19% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$3 · ×4.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses22 / 96
Open positions8
Markets (closed)118 / 126
History coverage20d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 17? Yes 43¢ 100¢ $5 $12 +$7 (+132%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 17? Yes 16¢ 2¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-84%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 17? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on June 17? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-80%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 69°F or below on June 17? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on June 17? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 17? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-93%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 17? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 96 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $1 +$8 +566%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $9 +$92 +999%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $2 +$18 +1006%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 15 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 15 $9 −$8 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$32 +3079%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$14 +277%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$9 +375%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 14? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 13 $4 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 14? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 14? Jun 13 $4 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$10 +286%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$8 +202%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 13? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 13? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 69°F or below on June BUY Yes 0¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 17? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 21h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 0¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 8¢ $4 23h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 43¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 36¢ $5 42h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 42h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 42h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 42h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 42h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 42h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 16? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 42h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $1 43h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 1¢ $1 43h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $4 43h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 43h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June BUY Yes 1¢ $1 43h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June BUY Yes 2¢ $1 43h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 9¢ $4 43h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June BUY Yes 2¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June BUY Yes 5¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.11 · official $13.11 (match) · 157 history records