trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | no closed markets | |||||
| all | 35 | -6.0% | -14.9% | 31% | 14% | +32.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -14.9% | 14% | +32.0% |
| 10% | -23.1% | 14% | +19.3% |
| 15% | -30.5% | 11% | +7.8% |
| 20% | -37.3% | 11% | -2.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $400 | $400 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $380 | $380 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $220 | $220 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orioles vs. Guardians | Jul 21 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Thunder vs. Pacers | Jul 09 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Will Kim Kyoung-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Jul 09 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | May 13 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | May 12 | $6 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | May 07 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? | May 05 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | May 02 | $4 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Apr 30 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Apr 28 | $1 | $0 | -12% |
| Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? | Apr 23 | $4 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? | Apr 22 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | Apr 17 | $1 | $0 | -1% |
| Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Apr 16 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Bayern Munich win the UEFA Champions League? | Apr 09 | $5 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Apr 08 | $3 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? | Apr 03 | $4 | $0 | -0% |
| PartyDAO airdrop in Q1 2025? | Apr 03 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will XRP dip to $1.50 in March? | Mar 31 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Utah Hockey Club win the 2025 President’s Trophy? | Mar 31 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Arsenal wins the Premier League? | Mar 24 | $5 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Elon tweet 775-799 times March 7-14? | Mar 17 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Red Wings vs. Blue Jackets | Jan 03 | $104 | +$108 | +104% |
| Will Milady flip BAYC in 2024? | Jan 01 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Tether Insolvent in 2024? | Jan 01 | $21 | $0 | +0% |
| Ethena USDe flips USDC market cap in 2024? | Jan 01 | $21 | $0 | +0% |
| Ethena crash in 2024? | Jan 01 | $21 | $0 | +0% |
| Will USDC flip USDT in market cap in 2024? | Jan 01 | $89 | $0 | -0% |
| Texas Tech vs. Arkansas | Dec 30 | $103 | +$112 | +108% |
| Heat vs. Magic | Dec 27 | $104 | +$112 | +108% |
| GOP wins popular vote by 7% or more? | Dec 26 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Dolphins vs. Patriots | Oct 07 | $38 | −$38 | -100% |
| Kamala Silver Bulletin odds >55% Friday? | Oct 06 | $30 | +$10 | +35% |
| Who will speak more at VP Debate? | Oct 02 | $9 | +$14 | +156% |
| 草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)? | Oct 01 | $15 | $0 | +0% |