Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:58:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf579…b098 politics 215 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$27 (-11%) realized −$28 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate53%111W / 97L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 59% −$19
other 14% −$3
culture 10% −$5
world 7% +$3
tech 5% +$3
crypto 3% −$5
sports 2% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 20 +43.4% +29.7% 45% 35% -5.8%
≤90d 111 +20.9% +9.4% 51% 31% -14.5%
all 208 +3.4% -6.4% 53% 31% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 31% -20.2%
10% -15.4% 22% -27.8%
15% -23.6% 17% -34.8%
20% -31.1% 15% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses111 / 97
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)208 / 215
History coverage110d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 208 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
AWS service disrupted by June 30? No 50¢ 81¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+63%)
Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026? No 88¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Burna Boy perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 64¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
UFC: Will Conor McGregor Fight in 2026? Yes 85¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pam Bondi by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Tom Cruise be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes 81¢ 73¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027? No 49¢ 22¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 07 $1 $0 +7%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 05 $1 $0 -14%
Will Trump say "Uranium" this week? Jun 01 $1 +$1 +57%
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? May 30 $1 $0 -6%
Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026? May 29 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in May? May 29 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Vance say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Air Force Academy Address? May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Vance say "Epic Fury" during Air Force Academy Address? May 28 $1 $0 +34%
Will ICEMAN debut No.1 on Billboard 200? May 27 $1 $0 -1%
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200? May 27 $1 $0 +13%
Will Bernie say "Restructure" in Maine? May 25 $1 $0 +4%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026? May 24 $1 $0 -8%
Will Bernie say "Iran" in Maine? May 23 $1 $0 -8%
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week? May 22 $1 $0 +17%
Will "Maid of Honor" - Drake debut week album sales be between 120k an May 22 $1 −$1 -87%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k? May 22 $1 $0 -2%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Coast Guard event? May 20 $1 +$2 +192%
Will "The Great Divide" - Noah Kahan debut week album sales be between May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $1 +$2 +186%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 2, 2026? May 02 $1 $0 +4%
Will Trump speak to Nicolás Maduro in May? May 02 $1 $0 +3%
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 20+ times at The Villages on May 1? May 02 $1 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "Percent" 20+ times at The Villages on May 1? May 02 $1 +$2 +154%
Will Trump say "Hell" 10+ times at The Villages on May 1? May 01 $1 +$2 +186%
Will Trump name "Zohran" or "Mamdani" in April? May 01 $1 +$1 +100%
Will Trump talk to Yoon Suk Yeol in April? May 01 $1 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "Braggadocious" in April? May 01 $1 −$1 -99%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30? May 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Will MrBeast say "Insane" during his next video? Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? (April 12) Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mark Rutte say "Ceasefire" 3+ times during his speech on April 9? Apr 09 $1 $0 +4%
ChatGPT Outage by April 10? Apr 09 $1 $0 -7%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Apr 08 $1 $0 +25%
Will Trump say "Ballroom" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Weather" or "Rain" or "Raining" during the White House Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Construction" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Kim Jong Un" in April? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump name "Netanyahu" in April? Apr 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Iran" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? Apr 06 $1 +$1 +61%
Will Trump say "UFC" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? Apr 06 $1 $0 -18%
Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during the White House Easter Egg Apr 06 $1 $0 -31%
Will Trump say "Plastic Egg" this week? (April 5) Apr 06 $1 −$1 -93%
Will MrBeast say "Subscribe" or "Subscribers" during his next video? Apr 04 $1 $0 +45%
Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be less than 150k? Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
ChatGPT Outage by April 3? Apr 02 $1 +$3 +257%
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Natio Apr 02 $1 +$4 +376%
Will Trump say "Objective" or "Goal" 3+ times during Address to the Na Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during Address to Apr 01 $1 $0 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL No 21¢ $0 1h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL No 21¢ $0 1h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL No 16¢ $0 14h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL No 16¢ $0 14h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL No 16¢ $0 14h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL No 18¢ $0 37h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL No 15¢ $0 43h
Will Burna Boy perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? SELL No 62¢ $0 2d
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? SELL Yes 66¢ $1 7d
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? SELL Yes 93¢ $0 9d
Will Burna Boy perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? BUY No 64¢ $1 10d
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? SELL Yes 96¢ $0 10d
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? SELL Yes 96¢ $0 10d
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? SELL Yes 86¢ $0 10d
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? SELL Yes 85¢ $0 11d
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? SELL Yes 82¢ $0 11d
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? SELL Yes 69¢ $0 11d
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? SELL Yes 69¢ $0 11d
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? SELL Yes 60¢ $0 12d
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? SELL Yes 60¢ $0 12d
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? SELL Yes 60¢ $0 12d
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? SELL Yes 60¢ $0 12d
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? SELL Yes 56¢ $0 12d
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL No 15¢ $0 12d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pam Bondi by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1 13d
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 13d
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL No 10¢ $0 13d
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? SELL Yes 62¢ $0 14d
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? SELL Yes 62¢ $0 14d
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? SELL Yes 62¢ $0 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.01 · official $7.61 · 641 history records