Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:47:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf57c…c9f6 crypto 38 markets active 10d ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (169 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$107 (-3%) realized −$107 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate34%13W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day168.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$403
other 1% −$1
sports 1% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (169 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-33.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 38 -26.7% -33.7% 34% 29% -18.9%
≤90d 38 -26.7% -33.7% 34% 29% -18.9%
all 38 -26.7% -33.7% 34% 29% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover168.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.7% 29% -18.9%
10% ← realistic here -40.0% 26% -26.7%
15% -45.8% 18% -33.8%
20% -51.1% 16% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -72% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$52 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$107
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses13 / 25
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage3d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day168.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $28 −$27 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $34 −$5 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$10 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$6 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$17 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$13 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $19 +$18 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $17 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $449 −$78 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$31 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $60 −$56 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $108 −$36 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $187 −$34 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $370 −$361 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $192 +$184 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $278 −$264 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $328 +$31 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $322 −$106 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $308 +$74 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $355 +$12 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $159 −$151 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $110 +$82 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $27 +$8 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $106 +$189 +179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $79 +$244 +309%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $159 +$37 +23%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $38 −$1 -4%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $33 +$18 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $33 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 442 history records