Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:41:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F5 0xf57d…829c crypto 192 markets active 2h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,160 (+2%) realized +$2,160 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate84%161W / 31L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$750per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$276
14 days+$387
30 days+$489
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,069
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +4.9% -5.1% 91% 28% -8.2%
≤30d 120 -6.3% -15.2% 80% 20% -8.5%
≤90d 188 -3.7% -12.9% 84% 15% -8.2%
all 192 -4.1% -13.2% 84% 15% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 15% -8.2%
10% -21.5% 11% -17.0%
15% -29.1% 8% -25.0%
20% -36.1% 7% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,409) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$2 · ×7.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×36.35 per $1 lost it wins $36.35
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,160
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses161 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)192 / 192
History coverage91d
Avg bet$750
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 192 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 23 $1,845 +$19 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $1,843 +$17 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $1,813 +$29 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 19 $1,796 +$17 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $1,712 +$84 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $1,665 +$32 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 18 $1,665 +$16 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $1,341 +$13 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $1,634 +$18 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $1,619 +$15 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $1,604 +$15 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $1,589 +$15 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $1,576 +$15 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1,845 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 38h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,843 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? SELL Up 100¢ $1,606 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? SELL Up 100¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? SELL Up 100¢ $40 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? SELL Up 100¢ $40 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? SELL Up 100¢ $150 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 98¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 98¢ $1,797 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 435 history records