Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:22:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf580…d7c6 world 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3,283 (-9%) realized −$805 · open −$2,478
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate59%16W / 11L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,256per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$301now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$1,188
14 days−$987
30 days−$625
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% −$461
tech 12% −$1,767
other 6% −$1,020
sports 6% +$150
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -11.1% -19.6% 60% 40% -17.6%
≤30d 27 -7.7% -16.5% 59% 33% -12.1%
≤90d 27 -7.7% -16.5% 59% 33% -12.1%
all 27 -7.7% -16.5% 59% 33% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 33% -12.1%
10% -24.5% 19% -20.5%
15% -31.8% 15% -28.2%
20% -38.5% 11% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$998) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$155 vs −$282 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$301
Realized−$805
Unrealized−$2,478
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses16 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage22d
Avg bet$1,256
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No $2,779 $301 −$2,478 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $2,004 +$153 +8%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,000 −$998 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 15 $3,836 +$1,174 +31%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $456 +$28 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $138 +$76 +55%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$10 +97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $164 −$164 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $66 +$12 +18%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $4 −$4 -80%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $951 +$68 +7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $1,045 +$21 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $1,869 −$1,704 -91%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $581 +$105 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $848 +$175 +21%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $112 −$111 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $43 +$69 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$13 +41%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $48 −$7 -15%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 08 $30 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $5,901 +$201 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,168 +$369 +17%
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? May 28 $168 −$9 -5%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 28 $8 $0 -2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? May 28 $127 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $249 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $220 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $600 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $542 27h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $672 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $49 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $8 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $25 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $506 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $23 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $51 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $0 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $500 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $7 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $324 2d
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) SELL Sweden 100¢ $300 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $600 2d
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 93¢ $2,004 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $501 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $3,137 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $499 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $200 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $255 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $457 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $37 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $300.70 · official $300.70 (match) · 109 history records