Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:58:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F5 0xf584…be20 crypto 1381 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 23d only
✗ bot/MM pace (120 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$715 (+2%) realized +$721 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%651W / 616L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day119.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,569
7 days−$1,388
14 days−$50
30 days+$2,134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$4,842
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (120 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 599 -10.1% -18.7% 43% 42% -16.7%
≤30d 1267 +3.0% -6.8% 51% 51% -4.4%
≤90d 1267 +3.0% -6.8% 51% 51% -4.4%
all 1267 +3.0% -6.8% 51% 51% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover119.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.8% 51% -4.4%
10% ← realistic here -15.7% 50% -13.5%
15% -23.9% 49% -21.9%
20% -31.3% 48% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$26 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$721
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses651 / 616
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1267 / 1381
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$30
Trades / day119.5
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1267 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Down 51¢ 88¢ $4 $8 +$3 (+74%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Up 51¢ 2¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $87 −$87 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $93 −$93 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $88 −$88 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $189 −$189 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $8 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $3 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $11 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $17 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $19 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $20 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $11 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $9 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $10 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $7 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $6 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $7 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $2 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $11 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $9 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 33m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.76 · official $18.94 (match) · 3500 history records