Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:43:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F5
0xf585…11c0
sports · 7 markets active 0h ago
1.0score
−$265 -32%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$274 · open +$52
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$302
Realized−$274
Unrealized+$52
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 1 History 6 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$274
7 days−$274
14 days−$274
30 days−$274
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 66¢ $250 $302 +$52 (+21%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Under 56¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Curaçao 47¢ 0¢ $196 $0 −$196 (-100%)
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $21 −$2 -11%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $213 −$204 -96%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$42 -82%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $202 +$55 +27%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 95% −$199
crypto 2% −$2
other 2% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 14¢ $18 10m
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $253 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 1h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Curaçao 20¢ $6 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $61 4h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 47¢ $213 4h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $9 15h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) SELL Australia 90¢ $256 16h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 16h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 17h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Australia 70¢ $202 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-64.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -61.0% -64.7% 17% 17% -53.2%
≤30d 6 -61.0% -64.7% 17% 17% -53.2%
≤90d 6 -61.0% -64.7% 17% 17% -53.2%
all 6 -61.0% -64.7% 17% 17% -53.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -64.7% 17% -53.2%
10% -68.1% 17% -57.7%
15% -71.2% 0% -61.8%
20% -74.0% 0% -65.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $302.27 · official $302.27 (match) · 11 history records