Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:44:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf588…b88a world 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day16.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$3
sports 48% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -8.0% -16.8% 29% 14% -11.9%
≤30d 7 -8.0% -16.8% 29% 14% -11.9%
≤90d 7 -8.0% -16.8% 29% 14% -11.9%
all 7 -8.0% -16.8% 29% 14% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 14% -11.9%
10% -24.7% 14% -20.3%
15% -32.0% 14% -28.0%
20% -38.7% 14% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day16.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 75¢ 76¢ $110 $111 +$1 (+1%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 58¢ 58¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $10 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $10 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $105 +$5 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $20 −$8 -41%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 19 $10 +$7 +73%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $10 −$9 -92%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 18 $20 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 58¢ $18 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $10 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $111 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 91¢ $110 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 88¢ $90 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 8h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Milwaukee Brewers 5¢ $1 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $10 17h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 59¢ $10 19h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 57¢ $10 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $5 29h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $10 30h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $10 31h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $9 31h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 31h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 32h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 32h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 32h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.89 · official $128.89 (match) · 22 history records