Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:58:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf588…c198 crypto 273 markets active 6d ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d only
✗ bot/MM pace (289 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$109 (+3%) realized +$109 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate92%268W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day289.2pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$146
7 days−$139
14 days−$136
30 days−$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$39
other 1% $0
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (289 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -42.7% -48.2% 56% 0% -34.5%
≤30d 291 -5.6% -14.6% 92% 1% -12.4%
≤90d 291 -5.6% -14.6% 92% 1% -12.4%
all 291 -5.6% -14.6% 92% 1% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover289.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.6% 1% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.8% 1% -20.7%
15% -30.2% 1% -28.4%
20% -37.1% 0% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
11.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$8 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$109
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses268 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)291 / 273
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day289.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 291 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 29? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 8PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 3AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10AM ET Jun 18 $32 −$32 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 4AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 4PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 1PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 10AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $19 +$1 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11PM ET Jun 12 $41 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5PM ET Jun 11 $43 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2PM ET Jun 11 $26 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET Jun 11 $8 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 11 $14 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 4AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3AM ET Jun 11 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2AM ET Jun 11 $42 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10PM ET Jun 11 $61 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin above 62,400 on June 10, 10PM ET? Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 8PM ET Jun 11 $27 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 7PM ET Jun 11 $17 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6PM ET Jun 10 $30 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 10? Jun 10 $8 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1PM ET Jun 10 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12PM ET Jun 10 $19 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records